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On the ranked matches on Xbox live, how is your score determined? I am fairly sure it is a "true skill" ranking, but it doesn't seem to be dependant on number won or any other obivious stat.

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+75

Short answer:

Basically the system tries to predict if you will win or loss based on the skill level of the players.

An very simple example is:

Predicted to win  and win  = +1
Predicted to lose and win  = +2
Predicted to lose and lose = -1
Predicted to win  and lose = -2

Sometimes you need to win thousand matches to rank up, and sometimes loss just a single one can put you down in the rank.

Long answer:

TrueSkill™ Ranking System: Details

Moserware: Computing Your Skill

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Heh, that short answer is likely summing up how the stock market works by saying that the company doing good makes the price go up 1, and the company doing bad makes it go down 1. I think its a bit too simplified... –  bwarner Aug 9 '11 at 14:26
    
I got how true skill works in general, I am more concerned about what the game measures in game to as data points to determine most helpful in a four player match. In other words, when you you are playing a four person match, is just the order of losing? Does mana down have a bearing, how about creatures lost over the game? What are the data points the game is looking for to do all that estimating to achieve those "almost gaussian" rankings? –  user4139 Aug 9 '11 at 14:27
    
@sarge_smith: TrueSkill only uses one measurement: Wins or losses. Anything else would open up the system to artificial manipulation by players. –  Brant Aug 9 '11 at 15:34
    
@brant so what factors are going into the who-should-win? Are the decks wieghted or is it purely based on your true skill rank? Or is true skill a tack-on that doesn't take any game specific details into account? –  user4139 Aug 9 '11 at 18:30
    
@sarge_smith: The only thing that goes into the who-should-win calculation are your skill levels. TrueSkill doesn't care what deck you use or how you play, it only cares whether or not you win. (Note, however, that "skill level" are actually made up of two different values and it's not as simple as "X > Y therefore Y should win") –  Brant Aug 9 '11 at 18:49
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