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It says I'll get a gift, and that gift might be game or a coupon. Does anyone have any idea what my probabilities are?

Has anyone crafted coal? What did you get?

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It's highly likely that the probability of game vs. coupon when crafting is the exact same as when you complete an objective. Only the 3/4 roll for coal doesn't happen obviously. –  lunboks Dec 25 '11 at 20:21
    
@lunboks Have some people been getting games when they complete objectives? –  McKay Dec 25 '11 at 20:35
    
I crafted my coal into a gift and i got a coupon for 50% off, for the game World of goo -.- –  Lyrion Dec 26 '11 at 7:18
    
@lunboks where'd you get that probability from? –  Zommuter Dec 28 '11 at 8:34
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@TobiasKienzler The contest's EULA (see (a) Gifts). –  lunboks Dec 28 '11 at 11:50

1 Answer 1

up vote 1 down vote accepted

When you craft coal, you have a chance to either get a coupon or a game. An online source reports the games on this list + any Valve games are eligible to be awarded.

It is assumed that coupons for any of the above games can also be awarded, along with coupons for discounts on the developer "bundles" that are currently on sale.

Some people have also reported receiving a Dota 2 beta invite.

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