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Chance shots appear as a glowing circle on the court. They are not random, as one can deny an opponent from ever seeing a chance shot circle in an entire match. They are typically different colors like orange or purple.

What determines if these show up?

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Don't know enough for an answer, but in previous games smash chances were produced by certain shots against certain other shots(such as using a topspin on an incoming slice), while lunges also always produced smash chances. – Toomai May 31 '12 at 3:59
up vote 0 down vote accepted

Weak returns give your opponent a chance shot. The spin / lob of the weak return is what determines the type of chance shot.

A weak return is one that is poorly timed or not an accurate hit.

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