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My Xbox 360 is giving a 3/4 red ring (the top right is un-lit) and turning itself off shortly after logging into XBox Live. (It's way out of warranty.)

If buy a new Xbox and re-sign into my XBLA account (It's only a Silver account, with no Cloud storage) on the new one, what data will come over from the old Xbox? What data will I lose without using a hard drive transfer cable from the old Xbox?

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You will lose all your save game data.

Profile information including achievements, arcade purchases and DLC content will come with you. You'll need to download them again, obviously. Any media content you've purchased through Zune, or the like, would be recoverable as well.

A possible solution for getting your save data transferred is to use one of many techniques to bring your existing Xbox back to life. Do a search and you'll find many solutions -- some involving towels, or pennies, or major surgery on your Xbox. Do this once you have a new Xbox and have USB stick formatted for Xbox use.

Once your old Xbox is (kind of) working again you can quickly transfer items to the USB stick. Not everything can be moved though... some games are jerks. :(

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If the data was on a hard drive, wouldn't it be possible to use a transfer cable? (I really don't know, given that I've never owned a transfer cable or had a reason to use it...) –  agent86 Oct 26 '12 at 22:47
    
Yes, it would be. But the question asks what is possible without a transfer cable. –  Evil Closet Monkey Oct 27 '12 at 1:33
    
Ah, you're 100% correct. My bad. –  agent86 Oct 27 '12 at 1:57
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