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I've noticed that in the Steam Market, there's a variety of Steam Trading Card Wallpapers on sale, but some wallpapers have the prefix Uncommon, or even Rare.

What's the "craft" rate of getting these? Can I only get "rare" backgrounds from crafting foil cards? Or is it just a slim slim chance of getting one through regular crafting?

  • 2
    I have got both common and uncommon items from all of my crafting so far but haven't done anything with foil cards, either way the exact percentages are not going to be available any time soon. I have not yet crafted anything "rare". – kalina Jun 4 '13 at 10:57
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Let us consider emoticons obtained during the Summer Sale in 2018.

These are not sought-after items: they are very cheap, and people usually try to get rid of them, no matter their rarity. The price is the same for every rarity, because the supply greatly exceeds the demand. So, we could expect the proportions of each rarity among market listings to mirror the proportions of each rarity among items in circulation.

The proportions are:

  • 64% for common emoticons,
  • 23% for uncommon emoticons,
  • 13% for rare emoticons.

spreadsheet

market listings for emoticons

Similarly, for profile backgrounds, the proportions are:

  • 69% for common profile backgrounds,
  • 19% for uncommon profile backgrounds,
  • 12% for rare profile backgrounds.

spreadsheet for profile backgrounds

market listings for profile backgrounds

  • 1
    It's a nice answer, but the OP asks after 'crafting' rare items, the chance of getting rare items when crafting badges (and booster packs, I presume). The items you list are AFAIK 'won' through participation in Steam events, and hence don't reflect the percentages the OP is after. – Joachim Jun 3 at 8:25
  • In case of summer and winter sales, people are usually awarded "trading cards", which are then used to craft badges. So, the chance should be similar to the chance for other badges. That being said, I have a doubt now, I am not sure whether the 2018 summer sale was one of these sales. – Wok Jun 3 at 9:43
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    It looks like I should have chosen the Winter sale in 2018, because the Summer sale in 2018 was based on an event. There are 56 emoticons (1 rare, 1 UC, 54 C) & 39 profile backgrounds (2 rare, 2 UC, 35 C). – Wok Jun 3 at 9:50
  • The rest of the post can be applied (all items are cheap and people try to get rid of them). One needs to add the quantity of all the items of same rarity, which is a bit more tedious due to the number of common items. – Wok Jun 3 at 9:56
  • I thought I remembered right about those emoticons and backgrounds: I recognized them, but didn't get them through crafting. The percentages seem to be variable for any theme or event, as the answers here and in this thread on Reddit seem to suggest, depending, I suppose, on the amounts of items sold. – Joachim Jun 3 at 10:13
5

I did some sleuthing on the steam market, and based on the listings, there's consistently about a 10% chance to get an uncommon item, and a 5% chance to get a rare item (85% for common items). There's no 100% hard data on the actual odds, but I'd say the market's the closest we can get.

Note that you CAN obtain uncommon/rare backgrounds and emoticons from non-foil badge crafts. Foil badges actually have nothing to do with the items you'll get - it's treated the exact same as any other badge craft.

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