In the Arcade room when you play the Shell Game with the beggar there is a chance of him revealing Skatole under one of the Host Skulls when betting.

I know when it appears you have a 33% chance of winning (nearly 55% when having Lucky Foot) but the chance of it appearing is not stated anywhere.

Is it completely random or is there a set chance percentage of it appearing? Or is it based on your Luck stat?

Thanks in advance.

  • I'd like to say that the chance of winning is probably nowhere near 33% — drop rates seem to favor the resources you have the most of — but without running numbers it's probably comfirmation bias. Also the Luck stat is only believed to affect end-of-room drops.
    – badp
    Aug 5, 2013 at 16:09
  • @badp It should be a 1 in 3 chance of winning. It also says 33% on the wiki. Not sure how trustworthy that is but still.
    – MisterBla
    Aug 5, 2013 at 16:14
  • 1
    @badp it would be 33% chance to select the correct skull, but not to have the beggar offer the Skat as a prize.
    – shanodin
    Aug 5, 2013 at 17:34

1 Answer 1


According to the mechanics guide, the chances of revealing Skatole is 1/13.

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