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So far I know that doing a mission in full stealth and the expert driver asset prevent escapes completely.

Added Inside Man Assets on almost all levels so that you can buy a EXPERT DRIVER that 100% takes away the Escape. -- source

What else affects escapes? Does difficulty have a part in this? Is it ever guaranteed to get an escape?

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  • I've found that if you kill the first wave extremely quickly and escape immediately after that you frequently don't get an escape, this is definitely reliant on other factors though
    – kalina
    Sep 14, 2013 at 18:00
  • A friend of mine said that killing civilians can increase the chance to get an escape mission.
    – 5pike
    Sep 16, 2013 at 6:37

2 Answers 2

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While there are currently no exact numbers on what causes an escape missions, I've noticed the following by observing when we get escape missions after completing the main segment of the mission:

  • If no alarms are ever set off, there is no escape
  • If you have the Expert Driver asset, there is no escape
  • If you leave during an assault, there seems to be a very high (practically guaranteed) chance of an escape
  • If you leave after an assault, before the next assault, there seems to be a reduced chance of escape
  • If you leave after killing all enemies in a wave, outside of an assault phase, there seems to be a reduced chance of an escape
  • Once you have set off an alarm, killing civilians will increase the chance of an escape mission

Ultimately, escape missions are there to prevent the "quick and dirty grind" - if you want to go in loud and don't prepare properly, expect an escape to happen.

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  • According to the update 11 changelog, civilian death also increases the chance of an escape (obviously if you kill civilians with no alarms, the chance is still zero)
    – Unionhawk
    Sep 26, 2013 at 3:27
  • I was aware that killing civs would cause more snipers to spawn, I couldn't see anything about killing civs increasing the chance of escape in the patch notes though - am I missing something?
    – kalina
    Sep 26, 2013 at 8:34
  • I'm getting it from this source, and now I'm really confused.
    – Unionhawk
    Sep 26, 2013 at 14:55
  • @Unionhawk that's update 12! That's why I couldn't find it - you're right, it looks like once you've set off teh alarm killing civs will increase the chance of an escape mission - updated
    – kalina
    Sep 26, 2013 at 15:08
  • Scroll up a little from where the info is. It says update #11 shortly above that (the post details every update)
    – Unionhawk
    Sep 26, 2013 at 15:48
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From The Long Guide by Frankelstner and RandomKenny:

Heists usually have a chance of about 10% to 25% to have an escape level if an alarm went off (if the heist does support escapes at all). Every dead civilian adds 5% to this chance. The expert driver asset removes the chance entirely. If there are several possible escapes, they are all equally likely to occur.

The levels usually enable escapes immediately when the alarm goes off. Once all players enter the escape zone (2 seconds before the level actually finishes), the game checks if escapes are enabled at all, and if they are, the escape chance is evaluated. If an alarm goes off after all players have entered the escape zone, the stealth bonus is lost, but there will not be an escape. Day 1 of Framing Frame and day 2 of Rats enable escapes only after a delay: There is no escape as long as all players enter the escape zone before that.

As for the actual escape data:

Heist Escape chance Possible escapes Notes
Trustee Bank 15% on gold and cash, else 5% Cafe, Park, Street
Jewelry Store 25%/27%/32%/36% on N/H/VH/OK+DW difficulty Cafe, Park, Street
Ukrainian Job 30%/33%/35%/37% on N/H/VH/OK+DW difficulty Cafe, Park, Street
Four Stores 30% Cafe, Park, Street
Diamond Store 10% Cafe, Park, Street
Framing Frame day 1 25% Cafe, Park Escape chance enabled 25 seconds after the alarm.
Framing Frame day 2 24% Overpass, Park
Nightclub 25% Cafe, Garage, Overpass, Park Killing civilians has no effect.
Rats day 1 45% when lab not exploded, else 100% Garage, Overpass The chance is actually 25%, but the 4 cooks killed at the beginning count as civilians.
Rats day 2 25% Garage, Overpass (if there was an escape on day 1, choose the other one) Escape chance enabled either 80 or 90 seconds after the alarm if no police ambush, else 0 seconds.
Transport Harbor 15% Garage, Overpass
Transport Crossroads 15% Cafe, Street
Transport Park 15% Cafe, Overpass, Street Killing civilians has no effect.
Transport Downtown 10% Cafe, Park
Transport Underpass 10% Park, Street

Notes on the escapes:

  • Overpass: Bain announces at the start whether to expect a van or helicopter. There is only one possible van location, at the parking lot.
  • Garage: After going up the staircase, it is possible to stick to the left and jump over the barrier, then hug the wall and cross over to the other side.
  • Park: The van only arrives in streets which are not blocked by police vehicles.
  • Cafe: The map has three possible van locations, but the location closest to your spawn is disabled.

Also, contrary to popular belief, leaving during or after an assault does not affect the chances of getting an escape mission.

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