From The Long Guide by Frankelstner and RandomKenny:
Heists usually have a chance of about 10% to 25% to have an escape
level if an alarm went off (if the heist does support escapes at all).
Every dead civilian adds 5% to this chance. The expert driver asset
removes the chance entirely. If there are several possible escapes, they are all equally likely to occur.
The levels usually enable escapes immediately when the alarm goes off. Once all players enter the escape zone (2 seconds before the level
actually finishes), the game checks if escapes are enabled at all, and
if they are, the escape chance is evaluated. If an alarm goes off after all players have entered the escape zone, the stealth bonus is lost, but there will not be an escape. Day 1 of Framing Frame and day 2 of Rats enable escapes only after a delay: There is no escape as long as all players enter the escape zone before that.
As for the actual escape data:
Heist |
Escape chance |
Possible escapes |
Notes |
Trustee Bank |
15% on gold and cash, else 5% |
Cafe, Park, Street |
|
Jewelry Store |
25%/27%/32%/36% on N/H/VH/OK+DW difficulty |
Cafe, Park, Street |
|
Ukrainian Job |
30%/33%/35%/37% on N/H/VH/OK+DW difficulty |
Cafe, Park, Street |
|
Four Stores |
30% |
Cafe, Park, Street |
|
Diamond Store |
10% |
Cafe, Park, Street |
|
Framing Frame day 1 |
25% |
Cafe, Park |
Escape chance enabled 25 seconds after the alarm. |
Framing Frame day 2 |
24% |
Overpass, Park |
|
Nightclub |
25% |
Cafe, Garage, Overpass, Park |
Killing civilians has no effect. |
Rats day 1 |
45% when lab not exploded, else 100% |
Garage, Overpass |
The chance is actually 25%, but the 4 cooks killed at the beginning count as civilians. |
Rats day 2 |
25% |
Garage, Overpass (if there was an escape on day 1, choose the other one) |
Escape chance enabled either 80 or 90 seconds after the alarm if no police ambush, else 0 seconds. |
Transport Harbor |
15% |
Garage, Overpass |
|
Transport Crossroads |
15% |
Cafe, Street |
|
Transport Park |
15% |
Cafe, Overpass, Street |
Killing civilians has no effect. |
Transport Downtown |
10% |
Cafe, Park |
|
Transport Underpass |
10% |
Park, Street |
|
Notes on the escapes:
- Overpass: Bain announces at the start whether to expect a van or helicopter. There is only one possible van location, at the parking lot.
- Garage: After going up the staircase, it is possible to stick to the left and jump over the barrier, then hug the wall and cross over to the other side.
- Park: The van only arrives in streets which are not blocked by police vehicles.
- Cafe: The map has three possible van locations, but the location closest to your spawn is disabled.
Also, contrary to popular belief, leaving during or after an assault does not affect the chances of getting an escape mission.