What are the chances of unboxing a StatTrak weapon?

Question

It seems that StatTrak variants are all too rare, and sometimes hard to find. Compare this with TF2, where Strange weapons are aplenty, and unboxing one doesn't take too much effort.

However, nothing in CS:GO seems to suggest any sort of "percentage" of unboxing a StatTrak weapon. Is this a factor that is affected by the item quality that a gun gets? Is it a "set" flat percentage on all weapons in the crate?

I haven't seen any official documentation listing the official percentage (however, a "Unusual" item is almost always a 1% chance). What are my chances of unboxing a StatTrak?

Answer 1

If we relate to the model that is shown to us when we unbox items, i think that the possible listings are shuffled and then laid in a random order but with the very valuable items in the extremities of the list. I think when a case is opened, a random number is generated somehow that it has some kind of an average number, and average weapons standing in the middle of the list. From what i've seen on many unbox videos on youtube, if the roll is higher (you get further in the list), there is a greater chance to get a better weapon. However there are still some common ones past the "middle" area of the list.

I think nothing can be said certainly, just as in Dota 2, there is no certainty that you will get at least a mythical (or unusual) from a chest with lots of rares.

Answer 2

Unboxing a StatTrak weapon is 10 times rarer than unboxing a regular weapon. The weapon chances actually aren't random since Valve recently released the real drop rates; they are as follows:

Mil-Spec (Blue): 79.81% (ST = 6.99%)

Restricted (Purple): 16.26% (ST = 1.64%)

Classified (Pink): 3.15% (ST = 0.48%)

Covert (Red): 0.57% (ST = 0.021%)

Gold (Knife or Gloves): 0.21% (ST = 0.0041%)