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I've been working to discover all the possible berry mutations on my own, assuming that Surprise Mulch would guarantee a mutation, if the berries had one, but I saw item definitions online that said it only increased the mutation chances. That seems to be the only information I can find.

What are the chances of getting a mutation, both with and without Surprise Mulch? (and with Amaze Mulch, if it differs)

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    I'd say that it's hard to tell without being able to see the inners of the game, but I would say that my personal experience has been 50/50 chance of getting a berry mutation, and I've always got berry mutation when using the surprise mulch (provided it's possible). Maybe I should start keeping track of the mutations and give a proper answer... – Jerry Jan 29 '14 at 8:56
  • I think it's more that if Berry A and Berry B won't mutate a new berry, using surprise mulch won't magically force a mutation? – Gwen Jan 29 '14 at 17:35
  • @Jerry - Yeah, that's exactly what I was thinking was the case. I think if I don't end up getting an answer, I'll be doing the same thing... – ZAD-Man Jan 29 '14 at 17:41
  • @Gwen - That's definitely right. I edited the question a bit to be clearer that I understand that, thanks. :) – ZAD-Man Jan 29 '14 at 17:43
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    Mutation rate depends on the rarity of the berry. 'Cheaper' berry combos are more likely to give mutations than expensive berries (i.e. the infamous lum berry and its cohorts). Also note that berries obtained from mutation are also capable of mutating, so there's an incredibly large amount of possibilities. – Pharap Jul 23 '14 at 5:29
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It appears that surprise/amaze mulch results in around a 50% chance of a berry mutation, assuming the correct berry combinations are planted next to one another. From my own testing without mulch, the chance appears lower, around 20-30%.

The reason why it's not exactly 50% with mulch, is that different types of berries appear to have slight modifiers which affect the chance of a mutation, with the overall effect of making certain mutations "rarer" than others. Wild Bug Pokemon and weeds may also be factored in to the calculation.

Serebii and Bulbapedia simply state that "the chance is increased", which is notable when compared to the explicit information on other types of mulch, for example, Rich Mulch is described on Bulbapedia:

When applied to a Berry patch, increases the final Berry harvest by 2 Berries.

To my knowledge, no source has done extensive enough testing nor dug into the game code (yet) to determine exactly what these berry-type modifiers are.

Sources

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  • Fantastic! I never did do my own research as I had planned, so it's nice to finally have an answer! – ZAD-Man Mar 27 '19 at 17:27
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I think without the surprise berry mulch it's impossible to get berry mutations at least from my experience and with surprise mulch I think it's 100% that a berry mutation will happen and again at least from my experience.

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    Incorrect. I have obtained mutations numerous times without the surprise mulch. – Jerry Feb 14 '14 at 19:34
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    Exactly why I said from my experience. – TheGameOracle Feb 17 '14 at 4:08
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    Maybe you would like to support your answer by providing some statistical figures from your experience? – Jerry Feb 17 '14 at 20:40

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