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I have just been playing TF2 for a while now and I am still wondering what the unusual drop chance is. I understand that unusuals in TF2 can only be found through uncrating.

However, when I tried to search up on the unusual drop chance I came up with several different speculations. For example:

According to www.tf2finance.com/rate/ this is how the drop chance for unusuals are calculated According to www.tf2finance.com/rate/ this is how the drop chance for unusuals are calculated

However, according to Steam forum posts, people claim that the drop rate is a fixed 1% or 0.6%.

As far as i'm aware the Percentage is of 1% So, 1 in 100? But then again, seeing as this is a binomial experiment. The results being YES or NO and the result we pay attention being YES UNUSUAL, you are most likely to find it on your 50th try.

In other words, I am at a lost here. Since all these data is based on other peoples backpacks and the crates other's have uncrated.

My question is, has Valve ever released any info on what the official TF2 unusual uncrating chance is? If so, what is the official unusual drop rate?

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    Questions asking if a developer has officially said anything and what exactly they said is markedly similar to simply asking for information which only the developer can provide (which is against the question policy here). To improve your question now and in the future, it would be better not to ask for developer sourced information specifically, but to ask for authoritative and conclusive information on the mechanic in question, regardless of how the user comes across it. – skovacs1 Mar 11 '14 at 15:04
  • Unusuals don't drop – senpai Mar 15 '14 at 10:10
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According to the TF2 wiki, which uses that tf2finance.com page as a source, the uncrate rate for unusuals is approximately 1/150, or 0.66%. I don't think you should concern yourself too much with the math they use to prove it, since the page was created mainly to disprove that the rate was exactly 1%, and so is kind of tailored to prove that the rate's upper bound is lower than 1% more than to prove what the exact rate is.

Valve has not released any such official info.

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