I have just been playing TF2 for a while now and I am still wondering what the unusual drop chance is. I understand that unusuals in TF2 can only be found through uncrating.
However, when I tried to search up on the unusual drop chance I came up with several different speculations. For example:
According to www.tf2finance.com/rate/ this is how the drop chance for unusuals are calculated
However, according to Steam forum posts, people claim that the drop rate is a fixed 1% or 0.6%.
As far as i'm aware the Percentage is of 1% So, 1 in 100? But then again, seeing as this is a binomial experiment. The results being YES or NO and the result we pay attention being YES UNUSUAL, you are most likely to find it on your 50th try.
In other words, I am at a lost here. Since all these data is based on other peoples backpacks and the crates other's have uncrated.
My question is, has Valve ever released any info on what the official TF2 unusual uncrating chance is? If so, what is the official unusual drop rate?