Having casually played Hearthstone for a while, I have opened many card packs. Sadly, I have only unpacked 1 Legendary card, out of over 30 packs. That got me thinking, what are the probabilities for each type of card to show up, including their gold counterpart?
Blizzard never officially stated the drop chances for each rarity, so this is an estimation by Reddit user ErikRK after analyzing the contents of about 11000 packs.
The probabilities for each rarity for a single card are as follows:
Common = 70%
Rare = 21,4%
Epic = 4,28%
Legendary = 1,08%
Gold Common = 1,47%
Gold Rare = 1,37%
Gold Epic = 0,308%
Gold Legendary = 0,111%
As there are 5 cards per pack, the chance of getting a legendary in a pack would be around 5%.
A reddit post from January 3rd 2016 furthermore suggests that you are guaranteed to open at least one legendary per 40 packs of the same type. For epics it is between 10 and 20 packs (the comments were undecided about the exact number).
We did a study on the new Journey to Un'Goro packs and came out with this information:
- 75% common
- 21% rare
- 2% epic
- 0.7% legendary
Numbers found here: Journey to Un'goro Numbers