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Having casually played Hearthstone for a while, I have opened many card packs. Sadly, I have only unpacked 1 Legendary card, out of over 30 packs. That got me thinking, what are the probabilities for each type of card to show up, including their gold counterpart?

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Blizzard never officially stated the drop chances for each rarity, so this is an estimation by Reddit user ErikRK after analyzing the contents of about 11000 packs.

The probabilities for each rarity for a single card are as follows:

Common = 70%
Rare = 21,4%
Epic = 4,28%
Legendary = 1,08%
Gold Common = 1,47%
Gold Rare = 1,37%
Gold Epic = 0,308%
Gold Legendary = 0,111%

As there are 5 cards per pack, the chance of getting a legendary in a pack would be around 5%.

A reddit post from January 3rd 2016 furthermore suggests that you are guaranteed to open at least one legendary per 40 packs of the same type. For epics it is between 10 and 20 packs (the comments were undecided about the exact number).

  • 2
    Also worth noting that these probabilities are not independent, as you're always guaranteed a rare or better in each pack. – MartianInvader Jan 2 '15 at 20:58
  • @MartianInvader Right, but this is a simplified and accurate(depending on the interpretation) way of looking at it. Since you can only open packs as sets of 5, this is what the average works out to per card. Using this we see that you should get a legendary in approximately 1 in 18.5 packs – Cruncher Jan 10 '15 at 20:33
  • @RalZarek: Hi, I don't want to sound harsh and, more than that, I know that you just reported someone else's statistics. But I really don't get them: what does "Common = 70%" mean? In each pack, you find a common for sure, so probability should be 100%. Same thing for rare ones. Am I misunderstanding something? Thanks! – Andrea Jan 15 '15 at 13:58
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    @Andrea: he says the probabilities are per card. So each card has a 70% probability of being a common, etc. – RemcoGerlich Jan 16 '15 at 12:36
  • using thee numbers, a pack i opened (consisting of 2 legendaries, 2 rares and a common) would have had a 0.00129 chance of occurring... a 10th of a percent chance... Looks like my lucky day! – nickson104 Sep 2 '15 at 11:32
-1

We did a study on the new Journey to Un'Goro packs and came out with this information:

  • 75% common
  • 21% rare
  • 2% epic
  • 0.7% legendary

Numbers found here: Journey to Un'goro Numbers

  • 1
    Please make sure to explicitly say that something is yours if it is. You sorta hint at it, but you need to outright say it. See the thing I linked on your other (incidentally, entirely spam) answer: gaming.stackexchange.com/help/promotion – Nic Hartley Apr 19 '17 at 18:26
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    You opened 55 packs. This is not really a statistically relevant number. – Ral Zarek Apr 19 '17 at 18:33
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    You don't have enough statistics to give these %'s with any reasonable accuracy. – JMac Apr 19 '17 at 18:43

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