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It seems the players who make it to Legendary each month is pretty public.

What about the players who make it to 12 wins in the arena? Is there a list somewhere?

I've heard that arena is getting more difficult with the increase in randomness from Goblins Versus Gnomes.

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    This list would be far too long. I'm not legendary, but I have 12 wins in arena as do a few of my friends who also don't have legendary. – Sorean Mar 2 '15 at 20:33
  • @Sorean My curiosity was whether or not the number of people making it to 12 wins has fallen. For example have you/friends made it post GvG? – Jonathan Mee Mar 2 '15 at 20:56
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    I haven't, only gotten 10 since GVG, but one of my friends has. – Sorean Mar 3 '15 at 1:00
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I haven't been able to find anything recording the number of wins but Gamepedia does have some good info here: http://hearthstone.gamepedia.com/Arena#Statistics

For every 8192 Arena players, only 2 will reach 12 wins with 0 losses, making this a 1 in 4096 achievement.

Out of 8192 players 53 will attain 12 wins. Making 12 wins a 1 in 155 chance or about 0.65% chance.

This is compared to the Ladder in which [0.5% of players reach legendary each month].(http://hearthstone.gamepedia.com/Play_mode#Ranking_percentages)

These statistics are still not equivalent however, because the number of players entering the arena each month is unknown. Even if it were known it could be that one player reaches 12 more than once per month, skewing the number of 12-win players.


As far as "arena is getting more difficult", this is a judgement of player quality in the arena which would be difficult to measure. However the skill of individual players will not impact the number of players reaching 12-wins. For every loss someone else won. When two 10-win players face eachother one must make it to 11 wins. When two 11-win players face eachother one must make it to 12 wins.

It is possible that the wins have become more concentrated? For example if a single player reaches 12-wins several times in a month that lowers the number of 12-win runs available to the general populace.

  • The problem with the gamepedia statistics is that they assume that a person with x wins and y losses will always play another person with the same record. That assumption only works if there are enough players starting an arena game at the same time to guarantee it. – ken.ganong Mar 3 '15 at 14:08
  • @ken.ganong (I've edited the "arena is getting more difficult" section, hopefully what is was trying to say is clearer.) As far as the Gamepedia statistics you have an interesting point. If we setup a scenario where the 11-win player had to play a 10-win player and each time 10 win player won... That might be a workable scenario. However the percentages from Gamepedia are still the closest thing I'm aware of to actual statistics. If you have something more concrete I would love if you could post it as an answer! – Jonathan Mee Mar 3 '15 at 14:23
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    Nice edit! I now agree with your statement and understand what you are trying to say in the "arena is getting more difficult" section. I retract my earlier comment. – ken.ganong Mar 3 '15 at 14:59
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    I don't have any statistics that would be better than the gamepedia ones and I doubt that any would be available publicly. My comment was just to point out their potential inaccuracy (based on math with some assumptions versus actual player data)--I still think it is the best we have. – ken.ganong Mar 3 '15 at 15:03
  • @ken.ganong I'm still trying to prove in my mind that you could prevent anyone from ever reaching 12 wins by having 11-win players face 10-win players. Hopefully someone can help me out with a proof over here: math.stackexchange.com/questions/1173544/… – Jonathan Mee Mar 3 '15 at 15:05

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