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The Shadowfang sword (which requires level 19 to equip and drops from Shadowfang Keep) is one of the most valuable items in classic WoW due to its very low drop rate and it's high demand for twinking.

The drop rate has constantly been changing (lower drop rate) every expansion. However, in Warlords of Draenor I have heard rumors that the drop rate for this item has increased.

Questions:

  1. What is the drop rate currently at?
  2. What mobs/bosses drop it?
  3. Is there a difference of drop rates between bosses and mobs? If so what is it at?
  4. Expected amount of runs through Shadowfang Keep to actually get a chance of seeing it?
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    According to WoWWiki: "As of Patch 6.0.2 the chances of getting this weapon have increased significantly; rather than drop off of only bosses, the sword now drops off of every mob in the instance." – Mathias711 Apr 22 '15 at 13:33
  • @Mathias711 atleast they make all mobs drop it. Last expansion was a lot difference. Each boss had a super low drop rate to drop one of the five rare items where one of them was the shadowfang sword. There isn't anymore information on the sword? Such as drop rate stats? – kemicofa ghost Apr 22 '15 at 13:39
  • I couldn't find it quickly. They are not on the 'main' WoW sites (that I know) for the new version, and all other information (such as 0.01% drop rate for each boss) is old. I'm not sure if this is answerable. – Mathias711 Apr 22 '15 at 13:40
  • I heard another rumor that around 500 runs was required to have a chance of seeing it at least once, but I wasn't able to verify the source. – kemicofa ghost Apr 22 '15 at 13:42
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    @Huangism knowing drop rates, at least relative, is important to plan one's time. I.e. if item A is 50% more desirable than B, but is ten times harder to obtain time-wise, one may choose to skip it, unlike the situation where it is, say, only three times as rare. – Orc JMR Apr 28 '15 at 6:58
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+50

Since you already provide the Link to wowhead in your post and oddly it's data is very limited I will provide information from wowdb:

  1. There are currently ~150k kills of Mobs listed. The best dropchance as per site has Spitebone Guardian and Shadowy Attendant however it only was killed about 4k and 17k times. If we put all this information together the overall dropchance should be around 0.02%

  2. As you can see at the source provided nearly every mob inside Shadowfang Keep is listed. However the site can only list kills and drops made by people with a certain addon to record and transmit these data. You can assume that every mob can drop the sword.

  3. With the limited Data provided we can only assume this but it looks like there is no difference for trash and bosses.

  4. I do not have an exect number of mobs inside sfk, but let's assume there are about 300. With our gussed drop rate of .02% that would mean about 15.000 Kills needed. Which would be ~15 runs.

But....as we all know statistics sucks. This does not mean that on run 15 you will get a drop. Only that the chance to get a drop is now higher then it was before. As live goes it might be you never see it drop. One of the most wanted farm able mounts is Ashes of Alar. Some friends got it on there third kill. Some at 30. Some are over 300 kills on multiple charackters and still did not get it.

As an advice from someone who farms rare mounts. Do not keep those numbers in mind. It is all about luck. You only get frustrated if you do not have your drop by a certain time but since it is not guaranteed chance just keep going on, listen to some music or watch tv and just rush brainless through their and be happy once you loot it.

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