I attempted at one point to unbox a new Weapon Case in TF2, but I had mixed opinions about doing so in the first place and I didn't end up with a desirable item. So that got me thinking.

What exactly are the percentage probabilities of getting a Strange or Unusual skin, or a higher-tier skin from the specific case's collection in better condition?


The other answer is correct about the weapon rates. I couldn't find any data about skin quality rates or Strange/Strange Unusual rates and they likely aren't known. We can speculate that the Strange drop rate is about the same as the Strange drop rate for Festive weapons, but I couldn't find any hard numbers for those either. People like to pin it around 10-20% but that's just a guess. Unfortunately, we're not likely to get a whole lot of new insight on it. Presumably, the rate for a Strange Unusual weapon would be the Strange chance * Unusual chance, which would put it around 0.1-0.2%.


if you are referring to power house and concealed killer cases. then you have 6.60% of chances in acquiring any of the weapon listed on the case. and a 1% chance of it being unussual

  • 1
    "6.60% chance" is outright wrong as not all the weapons have the same rarity. – Powerlord Jul 24 '15 at 13:59
  • 2
    they do infact,.. and its a clever lottery math<br> lets use concealer case as example<br> <br> theres only 2 of 6.60% to get a elite but theres a variety of percentage of getting a certain skin condition(which affects its market price greately). then theres SIX mercenary grade which ofc have 6.60% chances each, ... its pretty much answers why mercenary grade has higher chance of being drawn. since in the end... they had the larger quantity in a case – Karl Jul 27 '15 at 4:03
  • Turbine Torcher Flame Thrower (16%)
  • Low Profile SMG (16%)
  • Aqua Marine Rocket Launcher (16%)
  • Brick House Minigun (16%)
  • Lightning Rod Shotgun (16%)
  • Sandstone Special Pistol (3.2%)
  • Black Dahlia Pistol (3.2%)
  • Dead Reckoner Revolver (3.2%)
  • Spark of Life Medi Gun (3.2%)
  • Flash Fryer Flame Thrower (3.2%)
  • Pink Elephant Stickybomb Launcher (1.06%)
  • Current Event Scattergun (1.06%)
  • Shell Shocker Rocket Launcher (1.06%)
  • Liquid Asset Stickybomb Launcher (0.04%)
  • Thunderbolt Sniper Rifle (0.04%)
  • 2
    You sure have given a lot of exact numbers. You might want to provide the source, as some will down vote this off face value. – user106385 Jul 26 '15 at 2:49

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