So, I was reading up a finding on the Clash Royale Sub-reddit about the chest drop rates and it seems that the factor that determines what chest drops after winning isn't a random chance, but rather- A cycle that repeats itself, just like the gems in from obstacles.

After playing for a bit (about 2 weeks), I've noticed an abnormality in my drops; four gold chests in a row, that I couldn't find even about 100 lines into the cycle.


What moves the player through that drop cycle?

  • A win?
  • A win and having an empty slot to place the chest in? (Basically: Getting a drop)
  • Simply playing a game? (And that winning and having room determines whether you get the chest or not, and that it 'passes' the chest and moves on to the next one should there be no room/a loss)
  • the cycle will continue if you open the chest you get . . . and numbers would be skewed bacause of wins gained while having full chests. – Rusted_Silver Feb 17 '16 at 10:11
  • If it is a drop cycle at all. I haven't read the sub-reddit, but what I read from your question is that it isn't certain ("it seems that ..."). – Mathias711 Mar 3 '16 at 8:09
  • That link isn't updated. It is a drop cycle, but the drop cycle right now is much newer than the one in the link. I know because I've tested it myself, after a giant chest. It follows the cycle exactly. – DaemonOfTheWest Mar 25 '16 at 21:01

EDIT: Following the recent update as of 03/05/2016 the current chest cycle can be found HERE

Original Answer: The comments are right, and apparently also is the reddit post.

It is pre-determined when you get a drop by this updated list (to include new chests). I just got a giant, so I know exactly where in the list I am, and can start logging from there. Few things to note:

1. Having no free space, but wining a battle, moves you to the next chest. So In theory you can always get golden and above.

  1. The list might get updated or the entire system scrapped by Supercell at any time, given they are the developers and can do whatever they please.
  2. Having gone trough the list, it starts over from 9.

A win would push you forward in the cycle, regardless if you have a free slot or not. That's a win where trophies exchange place (eg. not against clan-member in a friendly match)

EDIT: What I've just red on this FAQ is having full chest slots and wining does not progress you on the list

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    btw, it's called Reddit. – aytimothy Mar 3 '16 at 14:54
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    Support evidence required - Some people are saying otherwise (on Reddit). My game is showing otherwise. – aytimothy Mar 10 '16 at 11:12
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    I have not noticed skipping chests with wins though it may follow that drop pattern for when you do get chests. Not to mention how bad of a game design it would be to allow people who knew it to always get gold+ and others to potentially miss their chance at a high rarity chest. – Dragonrage Mar 10 '16 at 17:37
  • @aytimothy I've altered my answer to reflect new information – Иво Недев Mar 10 '16 at 18:49
  • @Dragonrage You are right, it doesnot skip chests, edit my answer with references. – Иво Недев Mar 10 '16 at 18:50

It's simple. You attack you lose you don't move. You attack you win you move. You attack with full chests you win you don't move. There are apps for checking the cycle

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