I just played a Legend Ironman campaign which I lost. A large part of why I lost was that Stunlancers would KO me 90% of the time that they hit me with the baton, rarely ever doing Stun or Disorient. So what are the exact odds of each of the statuses that they can inflict?
I know this is a very old question and maybe the OP isn't even interested anymore, but I will answer anyway. The debuff is defined by a stat contest between the Lancer's Strength (75 for normal Lancers, 85 for Heavy, 95 for Elite) and the Soldier's Will.
After the Lancer hits the melee attack, he has a 50 + Strength - Will chance to apply a debuff. If he succeeds in this roll there is a second roll to define which debuff. The Weights are defined by the ratio between Strength and Will and the final chances (in %) end up being:
- Disorientation: 200 x WILL^2 / (2 x STR^2 + 2 x WILL^2 + STR x WILL)
- Stun: 100 x (STR + WILL) x STR / (2 x STR^2 + 2 x WILL^2 + STR x WILL)
- Unconsciousness: 100 x STR^2 / (2 x STR^2 + 2 x WILL^2 + STR x WILL)