I just played a Legend Ironman campaign which I lost. A large part of why I lost was that Stunlancers would KO me 90% of the time that they hit me with the baton, rarely ever doing Stun or Disorient. So what are the exact odds of each of the statuses that they can inflict?

  • I know its an ability check (identical to how the sectoid's mindspin decides what to result in), but I unfortunately don't know if that's a simple 33 / 33 / 33, or if there's more factors at work. Mar 2, 2016 at 20:41
  • 1
    According to the in-game mouseover text from a dominated Stun Lancer, they are supposed to only KO if you're already wounded. I don't think it plays out that way, but worth noting.
    – Kikanaide
    Mar 17, 2016 at 15:11

1 Answer 1


I know this is a very old question and maybe the OP isn't even interested anymore, but I will answer anyway. The debuff is defined by a stat contest between the Lancer's Strength (75 for normal Lancers, 85 for Heavy, 95 for Elite) and the Soldier's Will.

After the Lancer hits the melee attack, he has a 50 + Strength - Will chance to apply a debuff. If he succeeds in this roll there is a second roll to define which debuff. The Weights are defined by the ratio between Strength and Will and the final chances (in %) end up being:

  • Disorientation: 200 x WILL^2 / (2 x STR^2 + 2 x WILL^2 + STR x WILL)
  • Stun: 100 x (STR + WILL) x STR / (2 x STR^2 + 2 x WILL^2 + STR x WILL)
  • Unconsciousness: 100 x STR^2 / (2 x STR^2 + 2 x WILL^2 + STR x WILL)
  • Awesome! Thank you But I must know: where did you find this data?
    – Haney
    May 19, 2016 at 13:57
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    It is in the SDK. The "X2Ability_StunLancer" class explains what are the effects of the impairing ability and which effect takes place based on the Stat Contest result. The rules for stat contests are defined in the "X2AbilityToHitCalc_StatCheck" class.
    – Breno
    May 19, 2016 at 19:14
  • Can you give us some example results of those for cases where the strength / will ratios are high, medium, low? Those formulae are a little hard to intuit.
    – AlexC
    May 26, 2016 at 16:43
  • AlexC, a rookie has 40 will. This means that, if a normal Lancer hits a rookie, he will be debuffed 85% of the time. If the Lancer lands the debuff the chances are 18% for disorientation, 49% stun and 32% unconsciousness. Against a Captain with 80 will, the same Lancer only lands the debuff 45% of the time and even when he does the effect is usually weaker: 43% disorientation, 39% stun and 19% unconsciousness. Against a shaken soldier (with 0 will) the Lancer always lands the debuff and the effect is 50% stun and 50% unconsciousness.
    – Breno
    May 29, 2016 at 11:59

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