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Apart from pistols, weapons in XCOM 2 deal X+-1 damage. For example conventional assault rifle deals 3, 4, or 5 non-crit damage. Is the middle value more likely to get rolled, or is it a 1/3 chance for any of those numbers? For the first two pistols, is it a 50% chance to deal either lower or higher damage, and for the third tier pistol will it be 25% for each damage value of 3, 4, 5, and 6?

Does critical damage distribution function in the same way (even or uneven distribution for example for assault rifle's critical damage range of 5-7)?

For regular grenades it seems that they deal 3 damage much more often than 4. What is the chance to inflict four damage? It seems this is rolled for each enemy in the blast radius, because I have seen grenades to deal 3 to some and 4 to some other enemy.

Slightly related bonus question: Does crit chance mean a chance to hit as well, or just a chance to crit IF the normal hit rolls favorably? If my Ranger can hit a far-away target with 75% chance but has a critical chance of 85% due to modifiers, will it be 85% chance to hit and always crit when it does, or 75% chance to hit with 0.75*0.85=0.6375 chance to crit and 0.1125 chance to inflict normal damage?

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This Reddit post answers some of your questions. Here's my understanding:

  • Grenades have an 80% chance of dealing the lower of the two amounts of damage in the damage range given by the game.
  • Most weapons have an equal chance at any of the damage values in the range given by the game.
  • Some weapons, such as pistols, have a bias towards the higher damage values in the range. This bias is not the same for each weapon in this category, however.
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To completely test this, you'd need input from many people and long test runs. Or possibly the game files can give insight here.

For now, my experience:

  • Weapon damage appears to be equally distributed, applying to primary weapons, pistols as well as abilities like Deadshot.
  • Grenades have about 80% chance to deal the lower damage amount (all grenades have a damage range of x - (x+1) with the exception of EMP, which is fixed)
  • Crits always deal 50% extra damage, rounded down (the basic assault rifle may be an exception here as a 4 dmg crit would be pretty lousy). It certainly isn't a fixed value. A bluescreen attack with a Plasma shotgun (13-15 dmg) can crit for up to 22. Whereas bluescreen applied as a flat bonus to the normal crit-range (12-15) would only allow a maximum of 20.
  • crit and hit are independent from each other. For an attack to crit it first needs to hit. So, your second explanation is the correct one. In another example: 40% hit chance with 50% crit-chance means 3 misses, 1 crit and 1 hit on average over 5 shots.
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    Crit and hit are not independent. If your crit is higher than your hit chance on a particular shot, then if you do hit, you will always get a critical. This is due to the (very dumb) way that attacks are rolled; a single number from 1-100 is rolled, and then the same number is used to check both hit and crit. This is why enemies that are flashbanged will rarely hit, but will crit pretty much 100% of the time if they do hit.
    – Chris Hayes
    Apr 5, 2016 at 20:06
  • @ChrisHayes, does the same apply for bonuses from upgrades such as "Instant Kill"? e.g. if I have a +10% instant kill chance from an Advanced Repeater mod, is adding a Laser Sight to get a +5% critical chance useless, because I'd have to roll 95+ to get a critical, but 90+ would insta-kill them anyway?
    – boomstick
    May 9, 2016 at 17:52
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    @boomstick I haven't looked at the code for the Repeater, but it wasn't referenced anywhere around where the hit/crit calculations happened, so my guess would be they're independent.
    – Chris Hayes
    May 9, 2016 at 18:39

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