# How often do mysterious wanderers give loot back?

Sometimes, a mysterious wanderer arrives and asks for wood or fur. They say if you give them (100 or 500), they will come back with more. How often is that statement true? The builder isn't sure that they can be trusted.

Taken from the wiki:

# The Mysterious Wanderer: Wood

A mysterious wanderer arrives with a cart. He asks for wood and promises to come back with more. The player can choose to ignore them, give 100 wood for a 50% chance of receiving 300 wood in 1 minute, or give 500 wood for a 30% chance of receiving 1500 wood in 1 minute.

# The Mysterious Wanderer: Fur

A mysterious wanderer arrives with a cart. She asks for fur and promises to come back with more. The player can choose to ignore them, give 100 fur for a 50% chance of receiving 300 fur in 1 minute, or give 500 fur for a 30% chance of receiving 1500 fur in 1 minute.

# Excerpt from the code on github:

We can see from the code that

• giving 100 wood/fur has 50% chance to return 300.

• giving 500 wood/fur has 30% chance to return 1500.

Here is relevant code:

``````{ /* Mysterious Wanderer  --  wood gambling */
title: _('The Mysterious Wanderer'),
isAvailable: function() {
return Engine.activeModule == Room && \$SM.get('stores.wood');
},
scenes: {
start: {
text: [
_('a wanderer arrives with an empty cart. says if he leaves with wood, he\'ll be back with more.'),
_("builder's not sure he's to be trusted.")
],
buttons: {
'100wood': {
text: _('give 100'),
cost: {wood: 100},
nextScene: { 1: '100wood'}
},
'500wood': {
text: _('give 500'),
cost: {wood: 500},
nextScene: { 1: '500wood' }
},
'deny': {
text: _('turn him away'),
nextScene: 'end'
}
}
},
'100wood': {
text: [
_('the wanderer leaves, cart loaded with wood')
],
if(Math.random() < 0.5) {
Engine.setTimeout(function() {
Notifications.notify(Room, _('the mysterious wanderer returns, cart piled high with wood.'));
}, 60 * 1000);
}
},
buttons: {
'leave': {
text: _('say goodbye'),
nextScene: 'end'
}
}
},
'500wood': {
text: [
_('the wanderer leaves, cart loaded with wood')
],
if(Math.random() < 0.3) {
Engine.setTimeout(function() {
Notifications.notify(Room, _('the mysterious wanderer returns, cart piled high with wood.'));
}, 60 * 1000);
}
},
buttons: {
'leave': {
text: _('say goodbye'),
nextScene: 'end'
}
}
}
}
},

{ /* Mysterious Wanderer  --  fur gambling */
title: _('The Mysterious Wanderer'),
isAvailable: function() {
return Engine.activeModule == Room && \$SM.get('stores.fur');
},
scenes: {
start: {
text: [
_('a wanderer arrives with an empty cart. says if she leaves with furs, she\'ll be back with more.'),
_("builder's not sure she's to be trusted.")
],
buttons: {
'100fur': {
text: _('give 100'),
cost: {fur: 100},
nextScene: { 1: '100fur'}
},
'500fur': {
text: _('give 500'),
cost: {fur: 500},
nextScene: { 1: '500fur' }
},
'deny': {
text: _('turn her away'),
nextScene: 'end'
}
}
},
'100fur': {
text: [
_('the wanderer leaves, cart loaded with furs')
],
if(Math.random() < 0.5) {
Engine.setTimeout(function() {
Notifications.notify(Room, _('the mysterious wanderer returns, cart piled high with furs.'));
}, 60 * 1000);
}
},
buttons: {
'leave': {
text: _('say goodbye'),
nextScene: 'end'
}
}
},
'500fur': {
text: [
_('the wanderer leaves, cart loaded with furs')
],
if(Math.random() < 0.3) {
Engine.setTimeout(function() {
Notifications.notify(Room, _('the mysterious wanderer returns, cart piled high with furs.'));
}, 60 * 1000);
}
},
buttons: {
'leave': {
text: _('say goodbye'),
nextScene: 'end'
}
}
}
}
},
``````
• So giving more has a bigger chance of a larger amount. Jun 10, 2016 at 13:53
• ...how much larger?! At 30% for 100, that better be more than 333, and 50% for 500, it better be more than 1000, or that's a negative sum game, completely not worth the expense.
– SF.
Oct 31, 2017 at 5:39
• @SF - I have updated my answer with data from the source code. (For the browser version of the game) Nov 1, 2017 at 6:44
• That would mean giving 100 fur/wood is a positive sum game (50% chance for 300% gain), 500 is negative sum (30% for 150% gain).
– SF.
Nov 1, 2017 at 19:18
• @Caleb: no, he is right because you always lose the original "investment". With 100, there is a 50% chance of gaining 200 and a 50% chance of losing 100, for a total average gain of 100. With 500, you have a 70% chance of losing 500 and a 30% chance of gaining 1000, which is an average loss of 50. Nov 28, 2017 at 13:24