I think all of us have felt that the tournament is tiring. Playing during 3h to 24h only for 30 cards is tiring. So to focus on big tournament is better option. However, in big tournament, tactics are very important. Last night, I saw a guy in MEGA Tournament, he has rank 3rd in the last minute before ending, he tried to climb up, and lose the final match before ending 10 second, and he dropped from rank 3 to rank 5. Guess what, instead of getting 3000 cards, now he will get only 1400 cards ! It's bitter ! So the question is how to win in big tournaments ? Do we need a good tactic?
I've used Mathematica to collect the variation of my trophies during tournament. So let take a look:
This is the variation of the trophies during 24h of tournament. As you can see, as the beginning the trophies increase very fast, up to my real level. If I continue to play now, I can lose to the stronger guy, and I have a high risk of playing upcoming guy. However, at this time, if I lose, I lose few trophies. For example, If I won a match of same level, I got +20 trophies, but if I lose, I lose only -10 trophies. Because at this moment, the trophies of everybody are low. And everybody is climbing up, so you should climb up now. Climb at fast as possible, and stay at your real level. Dont mass game later or you will be punished by lower rank players.
This is the trophies variation during the last hour ! Incredible, the variation is huge, +- 150 easily in 60 minutes. this is the most dangerous moment to play! Strong guy in top ladder plays and loses, they moves up and down on the ladder, and you can lose easily at this moment. The trophies variation is very strong due to the fact that, higher players will lose each others, and they go down, and then go up fast. If you play, you will counter the best here, at this moment. You can play vs the top and the bottom easily in this moment. I've lost to one bottom, and he takes me -54 trophies ! And to gain again +54 trophies, I must win about another 6 matches ! Incredible !
Play fast at the first hour, you will quickly climb up to your real, or even a little higher your real ability. And then stop playing now. If you continue to play, you can lose time, and go down the ladder because of mass game, and risky lower ladder player. If you lose, you lose about -30 trophies, and can win only +6 trophies vs lower rank player. So stay calm now.
Aim at your desired position, dont try to climb up if there are very high risky players. They want to change their position, however, they can go down, go up in the ladder, and If you play, it's too risky.
The last hour ! Wait and watch ! If the players around your level go up very high, you should play now. If they go up, and then go down, you stay !
To play or not to play in the last minutes In the last minutes, the ranking is defined and relatively stable. Using Mathematica to calculate the average trophies for each ranking, it reveals that each ranking is separated by about + 30 trophies. So at this moment, if you loose a match, you will lose about 35-45 trophies that means you will drop at least one or two ranking. However, to go up one ranking, you need win at least 2-3 matches (to gain about + 45-50 trophies). So think twice before playing at the last minutes, it's too risky. But wait, I've seen several dramatic situations at MEGA Tournament of 600 players: at higher rank, during the last minutes, if you loose one match, you will drop from rank 3 to rank 5, which means instead of getting +3000 cards (for rank 3), now you get only +1400 cards (for rank 5), so you lose (3000-1400)/3000 = 53% of your winning cards ! More than a half of cards! CRAZY !! ! And at a bottom ranking, if you lose only one match, instead of getting 20 cards, now you get only 8 cards, that means you lose (20-8)/20 = 60% of your cards. So in every cases, you certainly lose more than a half of your winning card if you lose only one match at the last minutes. Enjoy it ! and cry !
I use Mathematica to catch up the trophies variations.