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Over the last few days I've had a few Pokemon run away while I was trying to catch them. Sometimes a Pokemon runs away after a few tries while others go for much longer. I have berries now so I can try to keep around longer, but I don't know if and when a Pokemon will run away.

Is there a a way to tell when Pokemon are about to run away or are more likely to run away?

  • the odds of it running go up after failed attempts, but I don't think there are any visual queues except maybe it jumping around more. – Dragonrage Jul 11 '16 at 22:07
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Pokemon give no visual indication of being about to run away.

However, Pokemon such as Abra are (still) almost guaranteed to run following a failed capture attempt. The chance any given Pokemon will run away on the first throw (without any sort of modifier) is given in the BaseFleeRate variable from the decoded ProtoBuf file.

Additionally, Pokemon with orange or red rings have a higher initial chance of running away. All Pokemon will run after enough turns have progressed, as the chance of a run increases each unsuccessful turn.

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    Are there any deeper statics on what the base chance is with orange or red rings that they will run away? – Dom Jul 12 '16 at 16:37
  • @Dom If there are, I haven't been able to find any. It seems to be dependent on CP though. – Kaz Wolfe Jul 12 '16 at 16:38
  • @KazWolfe source please. What are you basing chance of a run increases each unsuccessful turn on? – ton.yeung Jul 31 '16 at 2:44
  • @ton.yeung reddit.com/r/TheSilphRoad/comments/4u88we/…, personal experience, and confirmation from basically everyone I know who plays it. – Kaz Wolfe Jul 31 '16 at 3:12
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    Though this answer is outdated, the last part of "Additionally, Pokemon with orange or red rings have a higher initial chance of running away." is incorrect. Pokemon with lower catch rates (and subsequently being more likely to have red or orange circles) generally also have lower flee rates, not higher. For example, often when Pokemon evolve, both their flee and capture rates decrease. My source: reddit.com/r/pokemongo/comments/4tc929/… – MBorg Oct 18 '18 at 3:24
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Every species has a probability of running away. Just look for BaseFleeRate in the decoded game file. A Pokémon with BaseFleeRate of 0.99 (like Abra) has 99% probability to run away after an unsuccessful throw, whereas a Metapod with BaseFleeRate 0.07 is much more likely to stick around while you waste your PokéBalls perfecting the curve ball.

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The current answers are outdated. Now Pokemon Go stops you from throwing Pokeballs or using Berries when a Pokemon is about to run away.

The only way to predict how likely a Pokemon is to run is by its base flee rate, which is set for each Pokemon. As a general but not hard-set rule, rarer and harder to catch Pokemon have lower base flee rates, not higher as what Wolfe's answer suggests. Here's a list of flee rates current as of Gen 3. Note that the flee rates are irrelevant for raid and research Pokemon; only when encountered in the wild.

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