Like for example, what's the chance of getting a Great Ball? What are the probabilities if you've unlocked all the items, versus if a Great Ball was the last thing unlocked?
2Are you asking for a list showing the chances of each drop from a Pokestop? This question is currently unclear :/– djsmiley2kStaysInsideAug 6, 2016 at 21:00
Helpful, but incomplete, studies: reddit.com/r/TheSilphRoad/comments/4w3jkd/… and also reddit.com/r/TheSilphRoad/comments/4uy51o/…– wcarhartAug 6, 2016 at 21:26
As of now, there is no information as to what kind of drop rates Pokestops have. This is unlikely to be discovered in the future, as this information is server-side, and will never be released unless Niantic decides to do so. In its current state, this question is unanswerable.– Kaz WolfeAug 6, 2016 at 21:41
5@KazWolfe I don't agree. This is a directly measurable result, so it is very answerable.– SchismAug 6, 2016 at 22:22
1@Schism true. It could be answered through observation, but not exactly. There is always going to be some randomness / bias.– Kaz WolfeAug 6, 2016 at 22:24
Based on a user's logs here for 3207 Pokestops (with all items unlocked), a rough estimate of the drop rates for items for Pokestops is as follows:
Since then, the drop rates have changed, as you can see here, however, the rates are pretty much the same, but with lower rates for Pokeballs and Revives and higher rates for Potions and Super Potions.
- Pokeballs: 599 (52.00 %)
- Great balls: 132 (11.46 %)
- Ultra balls: 37 (3.21 %)
- Razzberries: 82 (7.12 %)
- Total balls/berries: 850 (73.78%)
- Potions: 134 (11.63 %)
- Super Potions: 67 (5.82 %)
- Hyper Potions: 25 (2.17 %)
- Max Potions: 8 (0.69%)
- Total potions: 234 (20.31%)
- Revives: 62 (5.38 %)
- Max Revives: 6 (0.52%)
- Total revives: 68 (5.90%)
Careful. They swapped around the drop rates a few patches ago, the information you linked is from 3 months ago and might be out of date.– KarlyrNov 14, 2016 at 17:12
1@Karlyr, found more recent data. It looks like they're pretty much the same, but slightly diff rates for pokeballs, revives, and regular/super potions.– VemonusNov 14, 2016 at 17:23
1Just good to notice that Niantic could easily swap around drop rates at a moment notice juste to change a bit the balance of the game. Still pretty useful ;)– KarlyrNov 14, 2016 at 17:35
Unfortunately, this information has not been officially released by Niantic, nor has it been thoroughly tested enough by current users to provide a concrete conclusion.
However, some preliminary tests have been conducted by interested users. Here are two examples of the most comprehensive unofficial tests I could find, which can be found here and here.