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When an egg hatches, it's been known that there's a different pool of pokemon that can hatch depending on if its a 2, 5 or 10 km.

What I want to know is if the chance of getting a charmander instead of a pidgey is exactly the same, or do some pokemon are rarer when they hatch.

EX: If we would say that the pool only contains Charmander, Pidgey and Weedle, are the chances to getting a pokemon in particular are Charmander 33%/Pidgey 33%/Weedle 33% or more like Charmander 10%/Pidgey 45%/Weedle 45%?

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    Based on my own experience, I would say there is a rarity chance for each egg hatch. Or maybe I'm just plain unlucky. Out of the approximate 10x - 10km eggs that I've hatched, I've received 3 Onix out of them. Out of all the 2km eggs I've hatched, I've only gotten 1 Charmander and 1 Squritle. While the rest have pretty much been pidgey, weedle and caterpie. – C-dizzle Aug 17 '16 at 13:34
  • That was my feeling too. But I would like to see if theres a table breakdown of the chances to get every one – Fredy31 Aug 17 '16 at 13:36
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While Niantic has not confirmed anything there's a theory that the location of the egg of which it was acquired influences the outcome. By that I'm assuming that the GPS location of the pokestop is stored and then used to find which pool of mons are appropriate.

It makes sense when you think about it. Pokemons that are common to spawn near certain pokestops are more likely to appear near them when luring.

I had a theory myself that your location when the egg hatches influences the pool of pokemons that you can get but I don't hava data to support that theory.

There are no facts out there though, only theories. I'm leaning towards the theory I linked until proven otherwise. I just found it and I'm going to keep an eye on it.

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