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In a stingy effort to maximize my gold income, I was trying to figure out if it was worth it to reroll daily quests that award 50 gold, from a mathematical point of view only (meaning I don't care how long it takes to complete and that it's my only active quest).

I did some research/calculations on my side, here are my results

There are 78 unique quests available 
 *quests of the 'win X games with class Y or z' type have 9 possibilities each, per Hearthstone wiki)
Those quests award a total of 4000 gold
Therefore, the expected amount is 51.28 gold
Conclusion: I should reroll a 50 gold quest

to get the above result, I gave a value of 100 gold to the Watch and Learn! quest. I also ignored the fact that the Everybody! Get in here! quest can only be completed 5 days out of 7 and that the Play a Friend! quest can only reappear 5 days after appearing once

Does that make sense? Did I mess something up in the calculations or the reasoning?

marked as duplicate by scenia, Vemonus, Timmy Jim, Trent Hawkins, Wrigglenite Dec 2 '16 at 15:41

This question has been asked before and already has an answer. If those answers do not fully address your question, please ask a new question.

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    This question has already been answered here (gaming.stackexchange.com/questions/234038/…). – broken_records Dec 2 '16 at 13:34
  • Thanks, I guess the reasoning would be the same, although, there are more quests now, so the results would be different – Traceur Dec 2 '16 at 13:58
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    If you scroll down on that question, you'll see that my answer from about a month ago actually includes the new quests (and explains a simple model that can easily be adapted to future changes to quests). – scenia Dec 2 '16 at 15:10
  • @scenia yup, your answer is very thorough and helpful, I guess my question really is a duplicate, not sure how I missed the original question – Traceur Dec 2 '16 at 16:12
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Going off of the list of daily quests on gamepedia, I calculate 3700 gold total from 71 available daily quests. I'm not sure why our calculations differ, but even with my result, the expected value of a daily quest is 52.11 gold which is still above 50.

Your reasoning for re-rolling 50 gold quests is sound with the following two assumptions:

  • Watch and Learn! has a value (to you) of 100 gold
  • All quests have the same chance of being awarded

Unfortunately, there is reason to doubt the second of those assumptions. As stated on gamepedia,

Some quests seem to be far rarer than others. As a rule, quests with greater rewards seem to be reported less frequently than those with lesser rewards.

I have not seen someone put together a probability for rolling each quest and without that we cannot give a truer expected value for a given quest. However, I am confident (if the statement on gamepedia is true) that the expected value is below 50.

Therefore, you should not re-roll 50 gold quests unless you just don't like the quest...because having fun with the quest is worth more than 0.2 gold.

  • thanks for the answer, as for the probability of rolling a certain quest, I always thought you got the 40 gold ones more often only because there are a lot more possibilities – Traceur Dec 2 '16 at 14:48
  • @Traceur If not for the statement on gamepedia, I would strongly assume they all have the same probability too. I've found a few reddit posts where people kept track of their own quest probabilities and each of those show the 100 gold quests as less frequent than others. However, all of those suffer from too little data from which to draw trustworthy conclusions. – ken.ganong Dec 2 '16 at 15:00
  • Sometimes 50-gold quests are worth re-rolling. Someone who doesn't have a good Shaman deck, for instance, should re-roll a "win 3 games as Shaman" quest cause this one might just consume much of your time. That's just my opinion. – Lucas Sant'Anna Dec 2 '16 at 15:26

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