In Mario Party 4, there's a lottery house where you can win an item, 30 or 100 coins.

What are the odds to win a prize in the lottery house?

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    I did some research and the only information I could find were peoples different "tricks" to try and get the 100 coin prize consistently. I think for this to be definitively answered, many tests would have to be done by players. Sadly, I could find no such tests having been done. :/ – Kyle Rone Aug 15 '17 at 17:23
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    These people seem to have a few things to say about it marioboards.com/index.php?topic=24101.0 – WillWam Jul 17 '18 at 17:19

This video investigates the lottery shop. It's all in commentary rather than text unfortunately.

For the scratch game, out of the 12 cards, there is 1 item, 1 thirty-coin prize, and 1 hundred-coin prize. This means you'll win something 25% of the time, and the chance of winning any prize in particular is 8.33%. Pretty good odds actually.

For the ball game, nothing is in the player's control. The video did 100 tests and got:

  • 66% lose
  • 22% item
  • 10% thirty coins
  • 2% hundred coins

...which is a higher chance of winning something than the scratch game, but an unequal chance of what you do win. (I'm guessing the true probabilities are 20%, 10%, 1%, but who knows.)

The game picked and its results are determined when you hit the dice block to start your turn.

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