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In Civilization: Revolution (PS3 version), what is the probability of success in combat for different attacking and defending values?

For example with overrun, the chance of the attacker winning is certain if:

The attack/defense ratio required for an attacker to overrun a defender is normally 7:1 against other civilizations' units and 14:1 against Barbarians (when attacking with a single unit). The starting bonus of the Zulu, however, reduces this ratio to 3:1 against other civilizations and 6:1 against Barbarians.

So what would be the probability of success for the attackers if the ratio is a:d (attackers' strength to defenders' strength)?

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I think you answered your question. If you played (a+d) times, then (statistically) the attacker will win "a" times, the defender will win "d" times.

Unless you're playing as Deity, in which case you always lose. :-)

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