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Does anyone know how the catch probability gauge works in Pokemon shuffle? I assumed the number displayed on it was the probability to catch the pokemon, however, I have recently done a "level combat" where the gauge increases by 1 every time I play, and I managed to catch the pokemon after 23 rounds. According to my calculations, I had under 5% chance of not catching it at this point, and normally (50% chance) I should've caught it around round 13.

Was I just unlucky this time, or does the gauge represent something else?

Edit: I just had another level combat, and this time I succeeded after round 25. This time, the pokemon got angry and skipped levels 6-9, but even after the correction the result is clearly skewed to my disadvantage. This is by no means a rant, it's an explanation why I'm reluctant to accept the otherwise fine and informative answer.

  • Not an answer but this is a combination of some bad luck and gambler's fallacy. None of the previously done tests affect the future ones (beyond the gauge raising mechanic) despite it feeling like it should. I've seen someone roll multiple nat 1's in a row on a d20 and no matter what the odds are of the final result (1/20 for 1, 1/400 for 2, 1/8000 for 3) after you've rolled two 1's the chances for a third is only 1/20. Incidentally many games will cheat their random number generators to act more as we would expect because actual random chance feels wrong to humans :) – Lunin Feb 7 '18 at 20:19
  • @Lunin When you say "gambler's fallacy", do you imply that my calculations have it? I would be grateful if you could point out the error specifically then. – Dmitry Grigoryev Feb 7 '18 at 20:31
  • Not that your calculations are off, just that there is a psychological phenomenon of thinking of the whole probability (the under 5% chance in your case) of getting a result over many trials rather than the individual attempt to attempt odds. The under 5% chance would only be relevant before you started. The moment the first one came up without a capture the chance of getting it before the 23rd attempt at that point would start dropping, since it would no longer be a matter of getting it in 23 attempts, but 22. I applaud your doing the math, just wanted to add potential context. – Lunin Feb 7 '18 at 21:49
  • @Lunin Ok, got it. I totally agree that the probability of a catch exactly after the 23-d attempt was 23%, not 95. I would also agree if you told me that 5% is not that statistically significant - after all, for each 8000 people throwing a d20 there will be one getting 1 three times in a row, and that's 0.0125%. Unfortunately, I'm not that addicted to pokemon to collect representative statistics on the matter, but I thought someone here might be. – Dmitry Grigoryev Feb 7 '18 at 22:19
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After reading this article, from my understanding, the catch rate of the pokemon is what is shown in the screen.

There are two things that affect the catch rate, the Pokémon's base catch rate, which is the section of the gauge that increases first after defeating the Pokémon, and the bonus catch rate, this increases depending on how many moves/how much time you have left after the Pokémon has been defeated.

This means if the gauge says "95%" then there is a 95% chance of catching that Pokémon. But that also means there is a 5% chance you will not catch that Pokémon. Unfortunately, you just got unlucky that time, but hope is not lost because you are able to retry as many times as you like.

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