Does anyone know how the catch probability gauge works in Pokemon shuffle? I assumed the number displayed on it was the probability to catch the pokemon, however, I have recently done a "level combat" where the gauge increases by 1 every time I play, and I managed to catch the pokemon after 23 rounds. According to my calculations, I had under 5% chance of not catching it at this point, and normally (50% chance) I should've caught it around round 13.
Was I just unlucky this time, or does the gauge represent something else?
Edit: I just had another level combat, and this time I succeeded after round 25. This time, the pokemon got angry and skipped levels 6-9, but even after the correction the result is clearly skewed to my disadvantage. This is by no means a rant, it's an explanation why I'm reluctant to accept the otherwise fine and informative answer.