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With the last update, Niantic added the Lucky Pokémons, which have unique sparkling background and reduced stardust cost when powering up. They can be obtained trading normal Pokémons, and the chances are higher the longer the time stored in your inventory.

https://pokemongolive.com/post/luckypokemon/

What are the real numbers?

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There are two ways to guarantee a lucky Pokémon:

  • You are guaranteed a lucky if you, or the trainer you are trading with, has acquired less 10 lucky Pokémon AND either Pokémon's capture date is July 2016 or August 2016 (Source)

  • With the new feature of lucky friends, trading while lucky friends will guarantee a lucky Pokémon. Lucky friendship status has a random chance to occur once per day when sending gifts, raiding, battling, etc with a best friend. (Source)

Outside the two situations where a lucky Pokémon is guaranteed, SilphRoad had done a lot of research on the chances. As shown on their site, below are the average rates for lucky Pokémon based on the capture date of the Pokémon

Average Rates of Lucky Pokémon

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