3

My questions are:

  • What is the probability of receiving a Sinnoh Stone in a team leader or PvP battle?
  • What is the probability of receiving a Rare Candy in a leader or PvP battle?
  • Do any factors influence these probabilities e.g. if you win or lose?

Previously when only Sinnoh Stones and Stardust were obtainable from these battles, the observed chance was about 1 in 7, and this was not affected by if the battle was vs a leader or another player, or if the battle was won or lost. However, Rare Candies and TMs are now obtainable prizes since this analysis was done. The number of battles vs both the leader and PvP that can award prizes had also temporarily increased to 5 (10 total) for Swinub Community Day but has since returned to 1 against the leader and 3 against other players.

  • For the 2nd factor, the February community day announcement stated the increased number of rewards from 3 to 5 was for the community day weekend only. Not sure if that changes anything though – Wondercricket Feb 16 at 15:39
  • You were right; the increase of number of battles giving rewards was temporary. But the reward rates may or may not have changed permanently when that happened – MBorg Apr 30 at 6:12
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Analysis was done by Silph Road (https://thesilphroad.com/science/pvp-rewards-analysis/) on 6-19-2019

PvP has set rates that don't change based off win/lose:

stardust - 67.23%

Shinnoh Stone - 15.08%

Rare Candy- 14.73%

TM Charged - 2%

TM Fast - .97%

Team leaders- not exact values see source for more information

Lose- 300 stardust

Win-

Stardust- great- 92.46% Ultra- 90.06% Master 83.08%

Shinnoh Stone - great-5.17% Ultra- 5.85% Master 10.04%

Rare Candy- Great- 1.15% Ultra- 3.05% Master 5.19%

TM Fast - Great- .51% Ultra .45% Master .87%

TM Charge- Great .70% Ultra .58% Master .82%

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