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Since the Games launch Pokemon Sword and Shield got a prediction of how it's shiny encounter chance looks like. Thanks to data miner Kurt we got this table on Twitter to look at and figure out the shiny chance.

Base chance, since most of the games is 1:4096, but stuff like catch-series and numbers encountered did always influence the odds in an positive favor for the player.

Now since yesterday several news pages started to claim the best chance to encounter an shiny without the shiny charm is 7/4096 e.g. 1:585.

But from what I read you only have a chance of 33% to get a reroll which would provide the additional 6:4096. So the correct math should be: 1/4096 + 0.33 * 6/4096 which alludes to a chance of roughly 1:1365.

So my question here is: Did I misread or not understand the twitter post? Is the chance of an additional reroll supposed to be another extra reroll after the 7:4096 you get at the start of an encounter (which would still not add up since the chance would be even better)?

To clarify the chances to get a shiny with an shiny charm equipped are calculated as

3/4096 + 0.33 * 6/4096 for at least 500 defeated and a streak of 25+ Pokemon of one species defeated in a row then.

This would mean, the best chance with a shiny charm is around 1:819.

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  • I am getting pretty mad here. With close to 2k defeated of one species of Pokemon and an almost constant 25+ streak the possibility of not encountering at least one shiny are marginally low at this point if the news pages would be true with their calculation. I am sure I did not encounter one yet since your Trainer Card shows the number of encountered shiny species and since it still shows a 0 I did not miss a shiny while chaining.
    – Roybin93
    Nov 20, 2019 at 11:40
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    Related: gaming.stackexchange.com/questions/360315
    – Wrigglenite
    Nov 20, 2019 at 11:45
  • Other sources are saying streak don't matter in Sword and shield with the highest chance being 1/512 with shiny charm and killing/catching 500. serebii.net/swordshield/shinypokemon.shtml
    – Styxsksu
    Mar 12, 2020 at 13:45

1 Answer 1

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Your calculations seem correct to me; based on serebii, with a 25+ combo and at least 500 of that species battled, you have a 33% chance to get the higher shiny rate. So overall you have a (1/3)X(7/4096)+ (2/3)X(1/4096) chance, about one in 1365. (I'm not entirely sure how the rerolls are worked out - if it simply rolls the 1/4096 chance seven times looking for at least one shiny, the odds are instead one in 1366).

Assuming you were at full odds the whole time, then, the chance of 2000 encounters with no shiny is 23.1%. Not all that unlikely. Once you get up to 6289 encounters you'd be looking at just under 1% chance of still no shiny (still fairly possible).

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  • Okay, Thank you for confirming my guesses. How do i get the probability curve, that shows me, how high the percent chance is in an specific number of encounters to get one shiny?
    – Roybin93
    Nov 21, 2019 at 11:03
  • should be somewhat of an exponential function closing in on 100 with the number of encounters being the value on the y axis and the percentage of encountering a shiny on the x axis, but how can I get the graph or at least the percentage that comes from it calculated?
    – Roybin93
    Nov 21, 2019 at 11:19
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    It's a binomial distribution, with the chance of success being 1 in 1365. The chance of not getting a shiny is 1364/1365 with each encounter, so for n encounters the chance of no shiny is (1364/1365)^n, and 1 minus that will be the chance of at least one shiny. So plot n against 1-(1364/1365)^n. Like this: imgur.com/mHG1BMr
    – Showsni
    Nov 21, 2019 at 14:14
  • Seems like the Masuda method is just better - there, it's a flat 1/683 chance (unless the mechanics changed this gen). Get something with Flame Body/Magma Armour and cycle up and down a lot, hatching eggs in batches of five... Of course, you need a foreign language Pokémon in the right egg group.
    – Showsni
    Nov 21, 2019 at 14:42

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