# What is the true shiny rate in Sword and Shield?

Since the Games launch Pokemon Sword and Shield got a prediction of how it's shiny encounter chance looks like. Thanks to data miner Kurt we got this table on Twitter to look at and figure out the shiny chance.

Base chance, since most of the games is 1:4096, but stuff like catch-series and numbers encountered did always influence the odds in an positive favor for the player.

Now since yesterday several news pages started to claim the best chance to encounter an shiny without the shiny charm is 7/4096 e.g. 1:585.

But from what I read you only have a chance of 33% to get a reroll which would provide the additional 6:4096. So the correct math should be: 1/4096 + 0.33 * 6/4096 which alludes to a chance of roughly 1:1365.

So my question here is: Did I misread or not understand the twitter post? Is the chance of an additional reroll supposed to be another extra reroll after the 7:4096 you get at the start of an encounter (which would still not add up since the chance would be even better)?

To clarify the chances to get a shiny with an shiny charm equipped are calculated as

3/4096 + 0.33 * 6/4096 for at least 500 defeated and a streak of 25+ Pokemon of one species defeated in a row then.

This would mean, the best chance with a shiny charm is around 1:819.

• I am getting pretty mad here. With close to 2k defeated of one species of Pokemon and an almost constant 25+ streak the possibility of not encountering at least one shiny are marginally low at this point if the news pages would be true with their calculation. I am sure I did not encounter one yet since your Trainer Card shows the number of encountered shiny species and since it still shows a 0 I did not miss a shiny while chaining. Nov 20 '19 at 11:40
• Nov 20 '19 at 11:45
• Other sources are saying streak don't matter in Sword and shield with the highest chance being 1/512 with shiny charm and killing/catching 500. serebii.net/swordshield/shinypokemon.shtml Mar 12 '20 at 13:45