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I think I've spent close to 5k mora already just gambling on getting the right jadestone. Now I'm not sure if the system is rigged against me or whatnot, but I'm honestly not even sure if there even is a way to correctly guess which jadestone contains the jackpot on the first try. The boss mentions that you can take a closer look, but the only thing you can do is run around the table to look at the stones, which to be honest, look almost exactly the same.

How can you tell which jade stone contains the jackpot in the "Diamond In the Rough" daily commission? Or is it that there are no jackpots?

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Turns out, it is possible to get it right on your first try, and without needing to become lucky!
enter image description here

This is what worked for me:

  1. Select "Go on then."
  2. Select "600 Mora."
  3. Select "Want to take a closer look"
  4. Visually inspect the Geo ore on each rock. One of the ores out of all 3 will look slightly brighter than the others -- this is the correct ore.
  5. Return to Shitou and select the color of the banner that rock is sitting on.

Turns out, there is even a hidden achievement for getting the highest-value jade right away on your first try! Note that if you do this right away, the game will end the daily commission right away and you will "cash out". enter image description here

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  • To be fair that isn't 100% accurate. And apparently sometime there isn't even a correct answer (because all the three rocks are wrong)., but I don't know if that is true (Should be tricky to check, you would have to pay to open all three). That said apparently the better jades are supposed to "load" before the worse ones, so allegedly the best one is the one you can see from the farther away
    – SPArcheon
    Jun 14 at 14:46
  • See here for added info. BTW, the fact that sometime there isn't a correct choice probably is deliberate. The dialogue when you get the correct one points to the fact that the shop owner doesn't choose the rocks randomly and already took the precious-looking ones out ("How could I miss this one")
    – SPArcheon
    Jun 14 at 14:52
  • @SPArcheon When I did this method I received the jackpot the first time on 3 separate occasions when getting the commission. Perhaps the Wikia uses datamined values, but I found my approach to be the most consistent, as to date I have yet to not secure a jackpot on my first try.
    – childe
    Jun 19 at 2:02

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