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I am just curious about what speedrunners most commonly aim for in random seed glitchless, and what I should aim for. I have already searched this but I got a wide range of answers.

Is there a minimum number, or even a rough number I should aim for to at least cover the minimum requirements for Blaze rods and ender pearls?

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    I have reworded your question to remove the invitation of opinionated answers (i.e. "What do you think?"), which made it off-topic. If you feel I have changed the intention of the question, feel free to change the edit. – Ben Jan 19 at 4:14
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    please also specify what kind of speedrun you are doing, set seed/random, tas/no tas, glitched/glitchless, just saying speedrun is so ambiguous that nobody can even hope to answer your question. btw the minimum is 0 (: – Topcode Jan 19 at 5:21
  • ok thanks, changed the description to include a category of "random seed glitchless" so that the whole 1/1000000000000 no eyes, blaze rods, pearls needed should be in only in previous answers or comments. (atm only looking for blaze rod amounts :) – Jesse Jan 19 at 10:51
  • @Jesse I added a paragraph about blaze rods. – SF. Jan 19 at 11:21
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Least is zero, in Set Seed runs on a seed where all end portal sockets are already settled.

On 'random seed glitchless' which is currently about the most popular category, 13 pearls is a safe amount. Get less and you're risking.

First off - regarding the end portal:

The frame has the highest probability of generating with only one eye of ender (37.7%), with probabilities dropping to 28.2% for zero, 23.0% for two, 8.52% for three, 2.13% for four, and a total of 0.433% for five or more.

Next, eyes of ender:

The eye has a 20% chance of shattering. The player can throw the eye an average of five times before it shatters.

Finally, stronghold loot:

In Java Edition, each stronghold altar chest contains 2–3 item stacks, with the following distribution:

Item          [...] Avg. # chests to search  
Ender Pearl   [...] 4.3

So you need 11 pearls to be mostly on the safe side regarding the portal - only 28.2% of strongholds don't have one. You need more to find the stronghold - it's unlikely not to break at least one eye of ender in the process, but that part is in equal parts luck and your own skill at triangulation - a great player will get the stronghold in 5-7 throws, a beginner may require 20 and more. And last but not least, if you're one pearl short, the run isn't dead yet, as chances are good there's one in a chest in the stronghold.

Summing up, with 11 pearls you need great luck - not break any, and have at least one in the portal, or if you break one - have two in the portal. With 12, you still have a good deal of a chance of losing - if one pearl breaks and the portal is unsettled, or two break. With 13 and more, you're mostly safe.

Obviously 1 blaze rod produces 2 blaze powder, so you need at least 6, preferably 7. If you have more pearls than 12, don't craft the last eye of ender unless you actually see you need it to fill a slot - a spare enderpearl can save a bunch of time getting from the spawn platform to the central end island in case you spawn way off the edge of it.

edit:

Regarding number of drops, I ran this rig for a good while, used up 12 stacks of gold, produced over 3 chests of 'junk' and obtained 258 pearls, in the following ratios:

batch size    # of batches
4             10
5             8
6             6
7             10
8             9

It's still a bit too little to have full statistical confidence but it seems there is no special bias of any kind and all the allowed trade sizes appear at roughly the same frequency.

This applies to 1.16.1 - there's no point speedrunning 1.16.2 or higher, as there's no separate category for these and both pearl trade frequency is halved, and the trade amounts are 1 to 4 instead of 4 to 8 pearls.

enter image description here

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  • I have a question concerning ender pearls. Assuming you get them in a speedrun by bartering, is the randomness for each amount of ender pearls you get from trade the same being 1/3? (2-4 from one trade so 1/3 chance of getting a specific one) – Jesse Jan 19 at 20:03
  • @Jesse I believe the distribution is uniform, but I've built a quick&dirty rig to count batches of different size. I need to run it for a while to get some results though. – SF. Jan 19 at 21:42
  • @Jesse note speedrunning is done mainly on 1.16.1 because the loot table for pearls is 4-8 pearls at 4.73% chance vs 2-4 pearls at 2.18% in 1.16.2+ – SF. Jan 19 at 22:09
  • Alright, I'll wait for both results... – Jesse Jan 19 at 22:28
  • @Jesse added to answer – SF. Jan 19 at 23:37
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Speed run

In speed runs you just have to defeat the ENDER DRAGON.
You will need around:
1. Ender pearls = 13 - barter/kill ender-men
2. Blaze rods = 7 to 8 - Nether fortress blaze spanwers
3. blocks = around 2 stacks - any
4. Diamonds = If needed - Nether Fortress Chests
You can Barter from Piglins for the ender pearls and blocks.
This is just speed run on random seed without glitches.
Plane Speed run

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  • You can watch some speed run videos on youtube – Kartavya Goel Jan 19 at 5:42

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