So I just got Prime status in CS:GO and wanted to open my first case. I saw on YouTube and other platforms that when a yellow boy slides by in cases (Rare special items), people seem to always get them instead of miss them. So my question is: Are you guaranteed to get the rare special item when it appears on the case?
As a CS:GO player with over 900 hours, I feel equipped to answer this question.
In the past, when a Gold item would appear whilst opening a case, it was possible for it to slide past and cause you to miss out on it.
However, now if a Gold item appears, you are guaranteed it will land on that and award you with a knife/pair of gloves.
No, there are no guarantees that you'll get something, it's all by chance. As far as I'm aware these drop rates have to made public due to gambling laws in China and other places. That being said there are a couple of stats available online that are shared through Chinese communities as well as some people online testing it for themselves.
Category 1: Weapon boxes that require a key to open
Mil-spec (Blue): 79.923%
Restricted (Purple): 15.985%
Classified (Pink): 3.197%
Covert (Orange): 0.639%
Exceedingly Rare (Yellow): 0.256%
Class 11: Capsules containing premium, exotic quality prints
Normal Drops: 83.333%
Rare Drops: 16.667%
And so on...
What you see on YouTube and other sites are usually edited to make it seem like they're getting constant winning, usually to boost viewership.