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What is the success chance for a normal colonist / indentured servant / petty criminal when applying for training in an Indian village/city?

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For as far as I know it's 100%. There are a couple of caveats though:

  • You can only train one free colonist or indentured servant (I would really send the latter, as they skip an upgrade step for free there) - this does not apply to the tribe's capital
  • petty criminals need not apply
  • you have to have a good standing with that tribe or they'll get murdered
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    In the question I pasted a screenshot of one of the tries with an indentured servant - it's clearly RNG based. Commented Jun 29, 2022 at 15:35
  • Well spotted. Either there is a dice roll involved after all (probably also depending on the skill level of the unit), or the tribe is not on friendly enough terms and refuses anything but the highest level units.
    – MiG
    Commented Jun 29, 2022 at 17:25

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