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Title. It caught my attention becuase I dont think I've ever gotten this unlucky lol

What's the odds of this?

1 Answer 1

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Per Minecraft Wiki:

Fortune III gives a chance to multiply drops by 2, 3, or 4 (20% (1⁄5) chance each, averaging 120% (11⁄5) increase).

You get 9 diamonds from 8 ore if you get an x2 bonus on one of the ores and no bonus on the others. This by itself, happens with a probability of 1/5 * (2/5)^7 = 128/390625.

This probability then needs to be multiplied by 8 because there are 8 different cases (of which ore gets the bonus), giving 1024/390625, or about 0.26%.

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  • the odds of getting 1 with fortune 3 are supposedly 40%, so wouldnt it be 0.4 x 0.4 x 0.4 x 0.4 x 0.4 x 0.4 x 0.4 x 0.4?
    – Aceplante
    Commented Dec 15, 2022 at 2:17
  • That would be the odds of getting 8 diamonds. For 9 diamonds you have to do a little more bookkeeping to account for the one bonus, as I did.
    – pppery
    Commented Dec 15, 2022 at 3:30
  • Yea except for the 8 above, I got 0.0006%, i find it hard to believe 1 diamond brings that up to 0.3?
    – Aceplante
    Commented Dec 15, 2022 at 4:09
  • It's actually .06 for 8, because you have to multiply by 100 to turn a fraction into a percentage.
    – pppery
    Commented Dec 15, 2022 at 4:57
  • 0.3 in my answer is already multiplied by 100. This comment section is derailing rapidly, and should not be the place to ask about how percentages work.
    – pppery
    Commented Dec 15, 2022 at 6:03

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