I recently obtained the Mehrune's Razor dagger. The enchantment is "Hits have a small chance to instantly kill". What are the chances of the effect working?
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1I have no data for this, but I think "a chance" is 10% and "a small chance" is 5% or 1%, and a "good chance" is 20%– GmNoobDec 19, 2011 at 10:18
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1After like 30 hours of playing with this dagger, it did not loose any charges.– ordagDec 19, 2011 at 11:09
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@GMNoob certainly no more than 5% chance. I've been using this dagger for a long time and if it was more than 5% chance I'd definitely notice. Ordag, this dagger, even when it procs, seems to lose no charges.– l IDec 19, 2011 at 11:59
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1According to elderscrolls.wikia.com/wiki/Talk:Mehrunes%27_Razor_%28Skyrim%29 quotes the prima guide stating it puts the chance at 1%. That piece of information has not been confirmed and is seen as unreliable, though.– bkzlandDec 19, 2011 at 17:42
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1sounds to me like I need to go test this later today! I smell more science ahead– l IDec 19, 2011 at 19:06
3 Answers
Testing can be awfully bloody sometimes. Just ask Constance Michel:
So I went around in god mode with the Mehrune's Razor and tested it on a bunch of NPCs after doing the following:
- Disable their AI via tai
- Set their health to 5000 via setav health 5000 (so they don't die to regular damage)
- Go on a rampage spree in Riften
Here are the # of hits before dying:
- 15
- 14
- 1 (Super unlucky guard)
- 114 (Super lucky guard)
- 39
- 3
- 36
- 51
- 21
- 46
- 67
- 28
- 66
- 66
- 19
- 70
- 22
- 76
- 34
- 18
- 29
- 36
- 61
- 47
Average: 38.8333333 hits (stdev 26.8, which is quite high...)
This works out to be ~2.57% +/-1.78% margin of error
If anyone wants to provide more sample points, go right ahead. For now, I'm going to conclude that the chance to proc is roughly 2.5%
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1
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8
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No that can't be right. This is my favorite weapon. It always works.– user19403Feb 4, 2012 at 0:17
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@user19403 With the mods, Mehrunes Razor Higher Kill Chance or Mehrunes Razor -Improved-, you can make it always work. Nov 25, 2012 at 5:40
yx. might need to check his math. I get a mean of 40.7917 for the values he quoted, with a standard deviation of 26.8.
This means 955 hits were non-instant while 24 were instant-kill hits.
Combining this with my own data of roughly 849 hits with 31 instant-kills (plus a few more) gives a total of 1955 regular hits & 58 instant-kill hits.
I applied a Bayesian approach and set the prior density to a half-triangle that peaks at zero, since most people assumed it was small. The final result is:
(2.91 +- 0.74)%,
where the +- indicates a 95% probability interval. As a hunch, since game programmers might prefer round numbers, our data together suggests that 3% might be the true proc rate.
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its a possibility, we won't know for sure until the CS comes out. You are right though, average should be 40.7917 instead of 38.8, but 2.5% or 3% both falls within the error margin.– l IJan 16, 2012 at 0:53
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According to the UESP Mehrunes' Razor article, the chance of the Mehrunes' Razor instant kill effect activating is 2/101 or ~ 1.98%.
Note: This is the actual chance of activating, as this information was extracted from the game's files using the Creation Kit.
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1If you feel that the instant kill chance of Mehrunes' Razor is too small, try the mods Mehrunes Razor Higher Kill Chance or Mehrunes Razor -Improved- to increase the chances of the instant kill effect activating. Apr 26, 2012 at 5:15
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1"They've done studies, you know. 60% of the time, it works every time."– Neon1024Aug 7, 2012 at 12:27