I've done an Izual run on Normal about 15 times now and he hasn't dropped it yet.
What is the Staff of Herding plan's drop rate?
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Sign up to join this communityI've done an Izual run on Normal about 15 times now and he hasn't dropped it yet.
What is the Staff of Herding plan's drop rate?
I have read quite a few similar questions on other forums, and according to the majority of the answers it seems that many people get it after 20 tries and most get it after 40 tries. I think the drop rate is somewhere between 2% and 5% (without MF).
Here is an important Note: The "Plan: Staff of Herding" is a legendary item and thus it is affected by Magic Find. If you have a very high MF > 300 % you will get the Plan very often. I tried it 3 times for test purposes and got it 3 times, might be luck though.
Here are some tips for your run:
Drop rates aren't known yet. I and many others were "lucky" and got it on our first try. The game is still relatively new and it seems even if Blizzard wanted a specific probability for the drop rate of this item that the real life experience would not be the same.
Thus far it seems Blizzard is experimenting with their drop-rate formula/code. Best answer: Random between 1 and 200+ runs. Though that answer sucks, it's 100% accurate and I don't know how someone can be more accurate (as of right now).
If you want a tip on speeding up the process:
This way the person who left can keep starting a new game to keep letting their friend in to kill Izzy.
There's a helpful guide here.
It's possible that you're getting the drop, but not seeing it. The plans are a common, white item that gets ignored when most people only pick up blues or better. The plans now drop as legendary (brown) as of patch 1.3, which should be easy to pick out.
Unfortunately, Blizzard doesn't publish drop-rates for D3, and mods aren't allowed, so that's out too.
The good news is that the plans will drop in normal mode (which is how I got mine, after about 10 kills), so it's not too painful to grind. My guess would be that it's around the 10% range, judging from what I've read in all the "Damn you Izual!" forum threads.
The bad news is that if you've kill Izual 15 times, the drop rate is still around 10%. Good luck! At least you're not trying for the Wheel Of Misfortune achievement :p
As far as I am aware the plan can just as well be bought (I bought it) from the merchant in your base in act IV (the one near the priest). He might not have it all the time but logging in / out should fix that and be faster than fighting the boss 383 times though that is an obvious exageration, more like 40 times and got REALLY frustrated :P
You can just buy the recipy at the vendor you night ? he dosn't sell all the time, but just make game until he sells it. Its the vendor next to the brother in act 3-4