To experiment I started a bot game, toggled invincibility and let the bots attack me. There were two clear hit effects: a major one that tilts view up a lot and sideways and a minor one that only tilts it up.
So I tried releasing single shots exactly at the tilts: during a major one a single bullet ended up here (slightly covered by text). Actually the crosshair never moves that high so there tends to be a good amount of additional upward deviation of single shots fired.
But when single-shooting during the minor tilts the marks seemed to end up exactly at the location of the crosshair.
Now, when switching to spraying while being shot this pattern emerged. This was mostly caused by the minor tilts and, I guess, "standard recoil". Occasionally a major tilt caused a single bullet to lie severly outside of the depicted cone.