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According to the Wiki and some forums, an Expert-level Toolsmith villager can offer three types of trades:

  1. Diamond -> Emerald
  2. Emeralds -> Enchanted Diamond Axe
  3. Emeralds -> Enchanted Diamond Shovel

So far, I have upgraded six villagers to the expert level, and none of them offered the shovel trade (but always had the other two). Am I super unlucky, or is the data wrong, or is there some trick?

Minecraft versions: 1.19.3

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    I don't really understand the distinctions between getting all and getting one of a selection on the wiki, so I looked at my own villagers instead: Some sell axe and pick, some shovel and pick and some all three. 11 out of 14 sell shovels. If mine are representative, that would mean that you hit a 1‱ chance. Or I happen to have a lot of shovel sellers. Or something changed in the versions since I made mine.
    – Fabian Röling
    Commented Mar 2, 2023 at 9:16
  • I think you are just unluck, I can confirm that my Toolsmith sells the diamond shovel.
    – pinckerman
    Commented Mar 2, 2023 at 10:24

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You're just super unlucky.

The villagers pick 2 trades out of their pools on every mastery level. So you have a 2/3 chance for every Expert Toolsmith to choose the shovel (and 1/3 that for it not to choose it).

That means that if you upgraded 6 of them, your chance of not getting a single one is (1/3)^6 = 0.0014 = 0.14%.

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  • Thanks. That's why I was confused, as it felt like a low chance of going that way. Do you know, by the way, how is the wiki data gathered? Are there people just empirically counting how often things happen (maybe with the help of mods)? Is there any official data from Mojang? is there some open-source code, or is someone decompiling jars?
    – Uko
    Commented Mar 5, 2023 at 8:14
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    @Uko it's a mix of multiple things. Some things are easily found out by looking at the built-in datapack and similar. But since 19w36a Mojang includes the mappings of their compiled code, making it fairly easy to decompile the jars. So a lot of the info on the wiki is backed up by data from the actual code.
    – Plagiatus
    Commented Mar 5, 2023 at 11:28
  • Once more, thank you very much for the answer. I realize that it's not truly a Q&A case, but right after this answer, I tried to level up a toolsmith again, and not only is he selling a diamond shovel, but also a diamond hoe on the previous tier 🤩
    – Uko
    Commented Mar 10, 2023 at 6:48

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