How to survive this coalition war? (or any)

Question

I finally managed to create the German empire from Brandenburg. I have probably -130 agressive expansion against me. Which is understandable with the enormous gains I made. It is 1780.

Now, their grouped armies number approx. 340k. (Commonwealth + France + Netherlands + Austria + Styria + Naples + most of the holy roman minions). My alliance numbers approx. 290k. (Germany + UK + Savoy + Denmark). Commonwealth is the coalition leader.

I know I can win since I have a three star general and 90 army tradition and 95 prestige. But what would be the best strategy? The Commonwealth alone has 210k men (also a three star general) + 150k manpower, I have 185k men + 130k manpower. The Netherlands is almost entirely occupied by me and the UK. France just joined the fold.

Any advice would be greatly appreciated. I have defensive + offensive + quality ideas maxed out and 125% discipline. What would you do? Hit and run? Greet them in the open field for an enormous battle of 600k men? (I think this is VERY risky). 60% of my army are mercenaries (I guess that's important) And I am at a budget surplus of 15 gold and 3400 gold total(warchest, I knew this was coming).

My war goal is white peace at the very least. I don't want to give up land to the evil polish heretics. I am a defender in this war. The war goal is to take Berlin. Berlin has a fortress so fort level 9 + a 1250 garrison.

If you need more info or something is unclear I will be happy to clarify.

This is on IRONMAN mode.

Aftermath: I lost a couple of really big unavoidable battles (120k vs 140k) but I also won some decisive battles. My army got stranded in France while Savoy and Denmark harassed the Commonwealth. The royal navy went to the baltic and took control. After 12 years the Commonwealth sued for white peace. VICTORY!!!

If the question doesn't adapt to the format of this SE site don't hesitate to comment and I will make it more general/more detailed.

Answer 1

Fun!

Since you're a defender, then the ticking warscore is in your favor if you can defend the war goal.

The Danish navy will dominate the Baltic sea, I assume. Can the UK navy plus yours dominate the ocean/North Sea? Lots of blockades will be good for warscore tiring the enemy, as well as providing good mobility for your army.

My initial reaction is that a simple defensive war aiming for a white peace is your best bet here to let things cool down. You do have a manpower problem, so you want them to spend as much time on your territory taking attrition as you can. Keep retreating and avoid engagements. It sounds like you have an advantage over the coalition in all other respects.

Aiming for a giant 600K battle does sound incredibly risky, especially given your overall manpower deficit. Consider a battle with even casualties on both sides to be a victory for the Commonwealth. Pick off small chunks of enemy siege when possible, or poorly coordinated HRE minor nation armies. Use your navy to evacuate your army, forcing the enemy to endlessly chase you over hostile territory. Curse at your allies as they throw away their units on hopeless battles. Join their battles to save them when appropriate, but at all cost avoid getting bogged down and letting stacks of 80 units start joining the battle.

I have a hard time seeing you giving much help to Savoy. It's going to be way too risky to send a large army down that way away from your own territory. There's a good possibility that they'll take a separate peace and concede some territory before the war is over.

Finally, you will want to have diplomats improving relations with other major powers. It's probably too late to make too much of a difference at this point, but if any of Spain/Russia/Ottomans decide to join the coalition you are going to really be hurting.

Summary

• Draining their manpower is your primary goal
• Leverage your advantages like maneuverability and combat efficiency
• Be Patient
• Don't forget diplomacy