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With Patch 6.9, Riot introduced four elemental drakes types: Cloud, Infernal, Mountain, and Ocean--any of which will randomly spawn during a game.

My question then is, "Do all the elemental drakes have an equal chance of spawning or do some drakes spawn more often than others?"

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    I'd assume they have an equal chance of spawning. Otherwise, Riot would presumably have explain the differing spawn chances, which as far as I'm aware of, they haven't.
    – MC ΔT
    Commented May 28, 2016 at 13:47
  • Possibly. The closest I've been able to find to Riot commenting on this is a discussion on Reddit that doesn't actually say what the spawn rate is--rather it's just an analysis of the methods people used to analyze the dragon spawn rate. reddit.com/r/leagueoflegends/comments/4kp403/…
    – Dante
    Commented May 29, 2016 at 5:37
  • The worst drake will spawn more than the rest by reason of Murphy's law.
    – Dragonrage ♦
    Commented Jun 6, 2016 at 18:45

3 Answers 3

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They spawn at a 25% chance each at first each but only 3 of the types will spawn each game.

Patch 6.9 nodes about the elemental drakes: http://na.leagueoflegends.com/en/news/game-updates/patch/patch-69-notes

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    I don't see the 25% chance anywhere in the patch notes you linked. Could you show me where you're reading that?
    – Dante
    Commented May 28, 2016 at 20:08
  • It's under the header Jungle Bosses
    – WPickett
    Commented May 30, 2016 at 2:23
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    @WPickett I'm reading the section on the Elemental Dragons, but I cannot find where it says their spawn chances. Could you perhaps quote us what you've found?
    – MC ΔT
    Commented May 30, 2016 at 11:20
  • I recall (literally) hearing someone say this but it appears that the 6.9 rundown video is not available on leagueoflegends.com or on youtube. If you can find a link to it, I would bet someone says it in there.
    – joedragons
    Commented Jun 2, 2016 at 18:44
  • DESCENT OF THE DRAGONS: For the first 35 minutes of the game, one of four elemental dragons will spawn every six minutes so 1 out of 4 makes it a 25% chance for each dragon to spawn.
    – empiric
    Commented Jun 7, 2016 at 19:49
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To add on to the other posts:

Information that is agreed upon

  • 3 elemental drake types spawn a game
  • Elemental drakes spawn every 6 minutes until 35 minutes into the game
  • Elder Dragon spawns starting the 35 minute mark, spawning every 10 minutes

Slightly debated is the actual spawn rate of each type of drake.

This reddit post seems to be popular, where they did an experiment to check the spawn rates. They took 100 drake spawns from 20 games and recorded them. The results were

  • Water: 33%
  • Earth: 21%
  • Fire: 22%
  • Air: 24%

However, the method of obtaining the data is skewed. Only 3 drake types can spawn a game, which means the spawn rates become 33% for those drakes. With the random selection of dragon types, it can easily skew the overall spawn rates for drakes.

Just because I like statistics, I did some calculations despite the small sample size. The chances of Water Drake having a 33% appearance rate with an actual rate of 25% should be about 9% (assuming the actual experiment is done correctly). The other largest discrepancy is the Earth Drake, at 21%, which still has a 40% chance of occurring due to normal deviations. So even with the skewed data, the 25% of each isn't unreasonable. Doing a Chi Squared test yields a 0.30 P value, which suggests that the hypothesis that the 25% spawn rate is accepted.

To accurately test the hypothesis, you would need to take the first drake spawned in each game only. However, since the initial test seems to confirm the hypothesis anyway, it's unneeded.

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I dont know the exact spawn rates, but here is a reddit post about the actual spawn rates.

The actual general spawn rates seem to be:

  • Water: 33%
  • Earth: 21%
  • Fire: 22%
  • Air: 24%

Edit:
To clarify the answer:
The spawn rate should be 25% for each drake, according to this Riot comment

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    They didn't have a very large sample size, and they didn't correct for the fact that only 3 kinds are allowed to spawn each game. I don't think they make a strong case for doubting the basic assumption that all elemental dragon types spawn at the same rate.
    – Renegade Princess
    Commented May 30, 2016 at 2:24
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    As like Renegade Princess said, out of a sample of only 100 there is bound to be large variance. Using a random sample generator of 100 numbers 1-4, I got 1, 35 times, 2 20 times, 3, 24 times and 4, 21 times. So the numbers in that post do indicate a 25% chance each
    – Aequitas
    Commented Jun 2, 2016 at 1:49
  • Also your link has riot employees stating that it should be 25% chance
    – Aequitas
    Commented Jun 2, 2016 at 1:53
  • I did some quick statistics analysis on the values. The variance from the expected isn't significant, even with the flawed data gathering method.
    – AwkwardBowman
    Commented Jun 2, 2016 at 20:17

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