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I have hatched 57 eggs in Pokemon GO, with another 9 on the go now. But I have never had a single 10km egg.

From peoples experience what chance is there to get a 10km egg and am I just super unlucky?

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You are unlucky, like me.

It is completely random. A friend of mine got a 10 km egg right the day after starting, so it is not based on trainer level or km walked or similar.

It will probably help to hatch more eggs, but it won't increase the chance itself to get a 10 km egg. You just have more chances to get one.

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  • Is there any official % of the drop change yet? – 0xen Jul 15 '16 at 10:41
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    Not that I know of... the devs keep their secrets – dly Jul 15 '16 at 11:57
  • Yeah....not unless someone has got a tonne of eggs across many accounts and roughly guessed at the answer – 0xen Jul 15 '16 at 11:59
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    There are spreadsheets for that, but those I've found are not managed very well. Maybe give it time and someone makes a good one. – dly Jul 15 '16 at 12:01
  • I'm currently babysitting two 10KM eggs, so I guess it's pretty random. Hopefully as other comments have said, there will be a reliable source soon. – Kaizerwolf Jul 15 '16 at 12:55
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From my experience (I am level 11), the majority of eggs in my inventory are 5 km ones (I almost always have 9 eggs on me). I have received and hatched four 10 km eggs, and about the same goes for 2 km eggs. Although it is worth mentioning that I don't buy incubators and only use the infinite one and the ones I get from level-ups, and I priortize hatching 2 and 10 km, and that's why 5 km occupy my egg inventory.

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  • A reason for the downvote could be helpful, otherwise it is not that productive. – Vilmar Jul 18 '16 at 8:35
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My second egg ever was a 10km. I think I was at Level 5 or thereabouts when I received it. It seems to be completely random. FWIW, it hatched a 221cp/40hp Jynx.

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