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Niantic have released the famous Golden Magikarp and the shiny Red Gyarados into the wild.

Shiny Magikarp Spotted!

Trainers across the globe have reported sightings of golden Magikarp in the wild. These Shiny Magikarp are extremely rare, so pay close attention to the Magikarp you encounter while you’re out exploring the world to make sure you don’t miss the opportunity to catch one!

The post states that they will be "extremely rare" to find. What are the chances the Magikarp is a shiny?

  • Might be 1/4096 like in the games, but I think it will take a really long time before getting an answer to this, except if an official announcement is made about this one. – Isuka Mar 23 '17 at 17:29
  • One source says 1/4096 though I'm not sure how credible it is. Other games appear to be 1/8192. – Timmy Jim Mar 23 '17 at 17:31
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    @TimmyJim Main series has moved from 1/8192 to 1/4096 with gen 6. – Wrigglenite Mar 23 '17 at 17:35
  • @TimmyJim That source seems to know his stuff. Otherwise, I'm sure The Silph Road will give us something at some stage =] – Tim Malone Mar 23 '17 at 19:18
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    Another question is; do all Pokemon in the game currently have a chance to be shiny? Or is it only Magikarp and Gyarados? I've asked in a local PoGo group, nobody seems to know. – C-dizzle Mar 23 '17 at 19:50
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The shiny rate appears to have been updated since shiny Magikarp was first released. The observed shiny rate, from The Silph Road is 1 in 450 for random wild encounters. With that data, the observed Magikarp shiny rate was 1 in 360 (95% CI 310 - 440), but testing if there was a difference in rate between all the shiny species collectively was not statistically significant. So it's still assumed to be 1 in 450.

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According to The Silph Road, the spawning chance of shiny magikarp is approximately 1/235

Moreover, it seems that the chaining is a thing in pokemon GO too. Chaining is a technique used in the main games where encountering the same pokemon repeatedly increased the chance of a shiny pokemon encounter. Make sure you only enter in combat with magikarp for a while and to capture them.

  • Your links are borderline spam, bouncing them through google to get to that site. – Frank Jun 12 '17 at 11:40
  • @Frank, thanks for pointing it out, I was browsing those link through amp. Updated the links – Chocobouc Jun 12 '17 at 11:53

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