I ended up doing my own homework since I needed something very precise to use in my KSP mission planning calculator (the next update - v9 - will feature a sophisticated mission builder). Here are my findings.
It Depends
There are many factors at play here. The answer differs from moon to moon, as well as where the planet and moon are in their respective orbits, the properties of the spacecraft, and other factors.
The main concept that we're exploiting is that a burn during a hyperbolic orbit is amplified with respect to the primary body. This is illustrated by the following equation:
V2 = Vesc2 + V∞2
Holding Vesc constant, a small change in V will result in a larger change in V∞ because V is much larger than V∞. Note that this is more pronounced for very high values of Vesc since V > Vesc for hyperbolic flight.
This needs to be used to "circularize" the orbit around a primary before stable elliptical orbit can be achieved around the satellite. During a moon flyby, this needs to be done twice: once for the sun-planet system, and once for the planet-moon system. And for a direct moon approach, the moon capture burn is used to accomplish both "circularizations".
Direct Moon Approach
If the moon has an atmosphere, great! then aerocapture, because ΔV will be pretty small. But, that's only the case for one moon in the game. For other moons, we can calculate what the burn will look like.
Consider the escape velocity at the periapsis of a planet ΔVePlanet
, and let's say you had an elliptical orbit around the sun before entering the planet, and the cost (during interplanetary flight) of circularizing the solar orbit so that the spacecraft is going about the same speed as the planet (required for an elliptical flyby) is ΔVdSun
. The cost of achieving ΔVdSun
during the flyby at periapsis is given by:
Brief explanation:
V2 = Vesc2 +
V∞2, but during a hyperbolic flight at
periapsis, V = Vesc + Vextra. Therefore
Vextra = (Vesc2 +
V∞2)0.5 - Vesc. We
want to kill the extra V so we can switch to a sub-parabolic trajectory.
This ΔVburn
can be effected by a moon burn, but there is an additional amount of ΔV required: the amount to "circularize" the planetary orbit to match the moon's, ΔVdPlanet
Thus far, I've been saying the word "circularize" in quotes because some planets and moons are elliptical. This greatly complicates things because it means that even at the height of low stable orbit, the burns require to go from hyperbolic orbit to parabolic orbit can vary widely.
It's much more efficient to do these capture burns at the periapsis of moons' orbits around their planets, especially when the planet is at it's periapsis around the sun. Let's ignore that for now and assume the capture burns are constant (i.e. the average case) because in this game we don't have advanced tools or facilities or patience to account for this source of error.
The final burn amount is given by:
This is not the burn required to get into low stable orbit, it's the burn required to get into a parabolic moon orbit. This can be compared with the result from below.
Planet Capture, Moon Flyby, Moon Capture
Basically we can use the first equation to obtain a sub-parabolic orbit around the planet (or a smaller amount, for planets with atmospheres if we're willing to aerocapture), then add a little bit of ΔV to adjust the orbit for a moon flyby, and finally add the amount of ΔV required to switch to an elliptical orbit on that moon.
Note that the hardest term here to calculate is ΔVdPlanet
because it depends on where the moon is in it's orbit, as well as other orbital properties.
Conclusion
The choice of whether or not to do a direct moon flyby/capture essentially depends on the comparison between the above two equations. There are values that could be used that would make either option better depending on the situation, for instance, a very fast-moving spacecraft (relative to the target planet) travelling to a small moon on a large planet might have better luck doing the planet capture first. However a slow-moving spacecraft travelling to a very massive moon can probably get away with a direct moon encounter + capture.
There are also some unknown/unknowable variables such as:
- The ΔV required to go from an elliptical orbit around a planet to a low-periapsis moon flyby (since it by itself depends on many other factors including player patience, avoiding collisions with other moons, the moon's orbital position upon intercept, etc).
- The ISP of the engine being used (calculations assume an instantaneous change in velocity at periapses, hence long burns waste fuel).
- The orbital position of both the planet and moon upon arrival.
- etc.
Also there are various risk factors to consider, especially regarding aerocaptures.
I won't go farther than that because an in-depth analysis is outside of the scope of this question/site and not in the spirit of video games.